The Morning Call--The coming crisis

 

The Morning Call

 

6/18/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crude-crypto-mega-cap-tech-rip-start-week

 

            Margin debt went up 4.4% in May.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/06/17/margin-debt-up-4-4-in-may

 

            Consumer survey shows rising bullishness (must read).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-survey-shows-rising-bullishness

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

May retail sales were up 0.1% versus forecasts of up 0.2%; ex autos, they were down 0.1% versus +0.2%.

 

                        International

 

May EU CPI rose 0.2%, in line; the June economic sentiment index was 51.3 versus 47.8.

 

The June German economic sentiment index came in at 47.5 versus projections of 50.0; the June current conditions index was -73.8 versus -65.0.

 

                        Other

 

                         May LA port traffic decreased YoY.

                         https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/la-port-traffic-decreased-year-over.html

 

            The Fed

 

              It is time to cut rates.

              https://disciplinefunds.com/2024/06/14/its-time-to-cut-rates/

 

              But for an entirely different reason.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/real-story-behind-feds-soft-landing-narrative

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The coming crisis (must read).

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/06/17/coming-supercyclical-crisis-john-mauldin

 

            Recession

 

              More analysis of the employment data.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/06/how-fast-is-nonfarm-payroll-employment-rising

 

              Recession Alert Weekly Leading Economic Index.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/06/17/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

     Bottom line

 

            The bottom line is looking up for stocks.

            https://www.tker.co/p/stock-market-record-fundamental-support

 

            The junta of mega cap stocks rule.

            https://wolfstreet.com/2024/06/15/junta-of-mega-cap-stocks-rules-rest-of-the-market-russell-2000-drops-to-jan-2021-sp-500-equal-weight-to-jan-2022/

 

            But that is not necessarily a negative.

            https://globalfinancialdata.com/200-years-of-market-concentration

 

            Momentum is still working.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-17/us-stocks-momentum-drawing-mojo-from-ai-and-magnificent-seven?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Lower inflation should lead to higher stock prices.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/latest-inflation-data-provides-potential-for-even-greater-upside-in-the-stock-market-rally-100054916.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9uZXdzLmdvb2dsZS5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKH0YD4uAwyTws7wFU0sHkaOUOllrmS3UK3QWHmAVaaX6pAq5JYu337Bx26I3BYz6ZKMC620pNoS1Qor-nA2C5uaQbQTzuYJR4-WNggw0sLMSn4pUp2yXCKxB6pf7WHERO4ZB3xay5oeCBKyLEEz0neh7PvwyrSfYjyYo1cz3bIs

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Why the myth of Atlantis won’t die.

            Why the myth of Atlantis just won’t die (nationalgeographic.com)

 

            Blockbuster discovery at Mount Vernon.

            https://nypost.com/2024/06/15/lifestyle/blockbuster-discovery-found-at-george-washingtons-mount-vernon-estate/

 

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