The Morning Call
6/21/24
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bullion-black-gold-bid-bad-news-was-bad-news-big-tech
Goldman guru sees
explosive Friday session.
Beyond the magnificent
seven.
https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2024/06/looking-beyond-magnificent-6-or-7.html
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
International
Note: all the
flash PMI numbers (save one) are below forecasts. This is the first time that
has occurred in a very long time and is an early warning that the EU and Japan may
be headed for recession.
May Japanese CPI
was up 0.5% versus consensus of +0.1%; the June flash manufacturing PMI was
50.1 versus 50.6; the flash services PMI was 49.3 versus 53.7; the flash
composite PMI was 50.0 versus 52.5.
May UK retail
sales grew 2.9% versus expectations of +1.5%; ex fuel, they were up 2.9% versus
+1.3%; the June flash manufacturing PMI was 51.4 versus 51.3; the flash service
PMI was 51.2 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 51.7 versus 53.1.
The June EU flash
consumer confidence index was -14 versus estimates of -13.6; the June flash manufacturing
PMI was 45.6 versus 47.9; the flash services PMI was 52.1 versus 53.5; the
flash composite PMI was 50.8 versus 52.5.
The June German flash
manufacturing PMI was 43.4 versus predictions of 46.4; the flash services PMI
53.5 versus 54.4; the flash composite PMI was 50.6 versus 52.5.
Other
The US drops out of global competitiveness
top ten.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-drops-out-global-competitiveness-top-10-first-time-ever
The
Fed
The Swiss National Bank cuts rates.
China’s central bank hints at a major change
in policy.
Fiscal
Policy
Meddling in mergers.
https://www.city-journal.org/article/the-justice-departments-meddlesome-merger-policies
Inflation
Weakening shelter inflation.
Recession
The latest CBO nowcast.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/06/june-cbo-economic-outlook-positive-output-gap-through-2025
More signs of slowing.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/after-year-recovery-economy-once-again-contracting
This is a great
history lesson on all the times the Fed stayed too tight for too long. What the
author fails to recite is all the times that the Fed stayed too loose for too
long (latest example: ‘transitory inflation’). The real lesson is that an activist
Fed almost always gets it wrong. This time around, given (1) the election and
(2) the necessity of financing a horrendous budget deficit, I can’t imagine the
Fed staying too tight for too long.
Civil
Strife
Should the mainstream media be discussing the
odds of a civil war?
https://www.ft.com/content/a1c839c8-cc0b-4c33-af4d-840544307d89
Geopolitics
A new Baltic flashpoint in the
NATO/Ukraine/Russia conflict.
Bottom line.
The case for
portfolio rebalancing looks compelling.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-case-for-portfolio-rebalancing-looks-compelling/
Foreign holdings
of ballooning US debt.
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/06/19/the-foreign-holders-of-the-ballooning-us-debt/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
FactSet
Research Systems press release (NYSE:FDS): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of
$4.37 beats by $0.47.
Revenue of
$552.7M (+4.3% Y/Y) in-line.
What
I am reading today
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment