Wednesday, June 26, 2024

The Morning Call---Congress makes drunken sailors look sober

 

The Morning Call

 

6/26/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bitcoin-bid-bonds-blah-amid-mixed-macro

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.8% while purchase applications were up 1.0%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

                       

  The April Case Shiller home price index was up 1.4% versus forecasts of +1.1%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/06/25/sp-case-shiller-home-price-index-april-2024

 

                          May building permits fell 2.8% versus consensus of -3.8%.

 

The June consumer confidence index came in at 100.4 versus projections of 100.0.

 

The June Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -10 versus estimates of +2.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/06/25/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-slowed-june-2024

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Congress makes drunken sailors look sober.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/06/23/weekly-market-pulse-the-sober-spending-of-drunken-sailors/?src=news

 

              Yellen gets it wrong…. again.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2024/06/24/contra_yellen_the_debt_isnt_sustainable_1039743.html

 

            Inflation

 

              The supply chain is under strain again.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/business/global-shipping-rates.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            S&P dividend futures decline.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/06/s-500-dividend-futures-retreat-after.html

 

On the other hand, analysts are raising their earnings estimates. Seems a bit inconsistent.

            https://www.marketwatch.com/story/something-unusual-is-happening-on-wall-street-and-it-likely-bodes-well-for-stocks-b3f9779c?mod=livecoverage_web

 

Sometimes markets go down; so live with it. That is the thesis of this article. I take a different view. When I buy a stock, I have two Sell prices: (1) a Stop Loss and (2) a Sell Half. I won’t get into the math, but the latter is usually at least double the Buy price and often more. And it moves up periodically as earnings and dividends grow. When a stock that I own hits the Sell Half price, I Sell Half---which does two things: (1) it creates a cash cushion that will be a source of funds for new purchases and (2) recognizes that as long as the fundamentals hold for that particular stock, my Sell Half price could be too low (i.e., I could be wrong). However, I will have my original investment in the stock back and anything left is a free ride. (You can learn more by going to http://investingforsurvival.com/home)

            https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2024/06/25/investors-should-expect-the-worst-in-the-short-run/

 

                        How did Goldman get to their year end S&P target of 6300?

            S&P 6300? Is That Outside The Realm Of Possibility? - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

                       

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

FedEx press release (NYSE:FDX): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $5.41 beats by $0.04.

Revenue of $22.1B (+0.9% Y/Y) beats by $40M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Q1 car and truck bestseller rankings

            https://wolfstreet.com/2024/06/24/ford-f-150-falls-off-cliff-in-q1-registrations-toyota-rav4-leaps-to-1-tesla-model-y-gains-share-still-2-bestseller-in-the-us/

 

            New discoveries about Stonehenge.

            Stonehenge was just one triumph in a surprising prehistoric building boom (nationalgeographic.com)

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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