The Morning Call
6/12/24
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-battered-bonds-bid-apple-bounces-back-ahead-big-risk-day
Buyback blackout
begins this Friday.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications rose 15.6% while purchase applications were up 12.0%.
Month to date retail chain store sales grew
slower than in the prior week.
May CPI came in
flat versus consensus of +0.1%; core CPI was up 0.2% versus +0.3%.
International
April UK GDP grew
0.7%, in line; April industrial production fell 0.9% versus -0.1%; the April
trade balance was -L6.75 billion versus -L1.25 billion; April YoY construction output
was down 3.3% versus -1.8%.
May Japanese PPI was up 0.7% versus
predictions of +0.4%.
May Chinese CPI
was down 0.1% versus estimates of 0.0%; May German CPI was up 0.1%, in line.
Other
Used car wholesale prices continue to plunge.
May hotel occupancy rate increased YoY.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/hotels-occupancy-rate-increased-09-year.html
The
Fed
There is always excitement
(consternation?) around a FOMC meeting. Here are three analysis on what the Fed
will do today.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/business/economy/fed-interest-rates-inflation.html
More.
Still more.
How important is the ‘dot plot’?
https://www.axios.com/2024/06/10/fed-meeting-interest-rates-dot-plot
Recession
Recession? We are not there yet.
But maybe getting close.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/06/us-probability-of-recession-in-next.html
The New York Fed’s May Survey of Consumer
Expectations.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2024/20240610
Inflation
Global food prices rise for third straight
month.
Bottom line
This author argues
that once the Fed eases, breadth will widen and the bull market will continue. My
problem with this position is that the Fed irresponsibly vastly expanded money
supply in the Covid aftermath and those excesses still haven’t been entirely withdrawn.
In other words the Fed is already easy. So, interest rates may come down, but that
has nothing to do with money supply.
https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/the-federal-reserve-needs-to-take
The counterpoint
to the Fed ‘easing.’
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/bitcoin-effect-onwards-and-upwards-post-halving
Is diversification
dead? This article should be followed by the admonition that ‘past performance
does not guarantee future results.’
https://www.thinkadvisor.com/2024/06/10/is-diversification-dead-to-investors/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Oracle press release (NYSE:ORCL): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of
$1.63 misses by $0.02.
Revenue of
$14.29B (+3.3% Y/Y) misses by $280M; up
4% in constant currency.
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) declares $0.40/share quarterly
dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
The woke and the
greedy.
https://www.betonit.ai/p/the-woke-and-the-greedy
The end game for Ukraine.
Photo of the week.
An
Interview With Climber Alex Honnold About Fear and Death
(nationalgeographic.com)
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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