The Morning Call
6/13/24
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday
in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-flip-flop-buybacks-bad-data-battle-hawkish-dots
The
short term pain trade is higher.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-flows-guru-says-keep-market-melt-your-bingo-card-july
On
the other hand….
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/all-time-low-risks-all-time-highs-really
Competing
forces.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/busy-buybacks-fomo-and-inverse-panic
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 242,000
versus forecasts of 225,000.
May PPI was -0.2% versus predictions of
+0.1%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/producer-price-inflation-cooler-expected-hovers-near-1-year-highs
The May budget deficit was $347 billion
versus consensus of $250 billion.
International
April EU industrial production fell 0.1%
versus expectations of +0.2%.
May German PPI was +0.1% versus estimates of
+0.3%,
Other
US trade with China and the rest of the world.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/06/diverging-trends-in-us-trade-with-china.html
Q1 GDP, GDO growth
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/06/gdp-gdo-gdp-2
The
Fed
The FOMC wrapped
up its June meeting yesterday. It left the Fed Funds rate unchanged. However,
the ‘dot plot’ (forecast) for future rate changes turned a bit more hawkish
than its predecessor---moving from two rate cuts in 2024 to one cut. It did
however move that cut into 2025. So no fewer rate cuts; just a difference in
timing. In Powell’s presser, he softened the blow somewhat with the old data
dependent routine, i.e., this is just a guess and if the data warrant, we could
cut sooner.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-17
Fiscal
Policy
US government debt both sustainable and a
problem.
Inflation
A long term look at CPI.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/06/12/inflation-cpi-since-1872
Recession
How bad is the housing market recession?
Housing market recession hits so hard existing home
sales fall to 1978 levels - Fast Company
The pain continues.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-pain-in-real-estate-continues/
Fitch sees continued stress in the commercial
real estate market.
Bottom line
We are at
extremes.
https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-herd-and-trend-following-we-are-at.html
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) declares $0.75/share quarterly
dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Wealth
and money are two different things.
https://dariusforoux.com/wealth-and-money/
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
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