Thursday, June 13, 2024

The Morning Call---We are at extremes

 

The Morning Call

 

6/13/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-flip-flop-buybacks-bad-data-battle-hawkish-dots

 

            The short term pain trade is higher.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-flows-guru-says-keep-market-melt-your-bingo-card-july

 

            On the other hand….

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/all-time-low-risks-all-time-highs-really

 

            Competing forces.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/busy-buybacks-fomo-and-inverse-panic

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 242,000 versus forecasts of 225,000.

 

                          May PPI was -0.2% versus predictions of +0.1%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/producer-price-inflation-cooler-expected-hovers-near-1-year-highs

 

                          The May budget deficit was $347 billion versus consensus of $250 billion.

 

                        International

 

                          April EU industrial production fell 0.1% versus expectations of +0.2%.

 

                          May German PPI was +0.1% versus estimates of +0.3%,

 

                        Other

 

                          US trade with China and the rest of the world.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/06/diverging-trends-in-us-trade-with-china.html

 

                          Q1 GDP, GDO growth

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/06/gdp-gdo-gdp-2

 

            The Fed

 

The FOMC wrapped up its June meeting yesterday. It left the Fed Funds rate unchanged. However, the ‘dot plot’ (forecast) for future rate changes turned a bit more hawkish than its predecessor---moving from two rate cuts in 2024 to one cut. It did however move that cut into 2025. So no fewer rate cuts; just a difference in timing. In Powell’s presser, he softened the blow somewhat with the old data dependent routine, i.e., this is just a guess and if the data warrant, we could cut sooner.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-17

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              US government debt both sustainable and a problem.

              https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/imf-says-us-debt-is-sustainable-but-predictions-have-risks-by-barry-eichengreen-2024-06

 

            Inflation

 

              A long term look at CPI.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/06/12/inflation-cpi-since-1872

 

            Recession

 

              How bad is the housing market recession?

              Housing market recession hits so hard existing home sales fall to 1978 levels - Fast Company

 

              The pain continues.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-pain-in-real-estate-continues/

 

              Fitch sees continued stress in the commercial real estate market.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/06/11/fitch-doesnt-see-bottom-of-office-cre-mess-sees-cmbs-delinquency-rates-spike-way-past-financial-crisis-peak-in-2025/

 

     Bottom line

 

            We are at extremes.

            https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2024/06/the-herd-and-trend-following-we-are-at.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) declares $0.75/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Wealth and money are two different things.

            https://dariusforoux.com/wealth-and-money/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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