The Morning Call
6/20/24
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/magnificent-7-stocks-fade-nvda-becomes-worlds-largest-company-ever
Time to hedge.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/markets-overheat-time-hedge
The bull in no
sell offs.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bull-no-sell-offs
376 days and
counting.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/376-days-and-counting
The continuing
saga of low breadth.
https://sherwood.news/markets/us-stocks-low-breadth-explained/
Central banks expect
to buy more gold this year.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
were up 0.9% while purchase applications were up 2.0%.
Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 238,000 versus expectations of 235,000.
Month to date retail chain store sales grew
faster than in the prior week.
May industrial production was up 0.9% versus
consensus of +0.3%; capacity utilization was 78.7% versus
78.6%.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/industrial-production-increased-09-in.html
May housing starts
declined 5.5% versus predictions of +2.2%; May building permits were down 3.8%
versus +2.0%.
The June Philadelphia
Fed manufacturing index came in at 1.3 versus forecasts of 5.0.
The June housing index was reported at 43 versus
projections of 45.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/nahb-builder-confidence-declined-in-june.html
International
April EU YoY construction output fell 1.1%
versus estimates of +1.1%.
The May Japanese trade balance was -Y1221.3 billion
versus expectations of -Y1300.0 billion.
May EU CPI was +0.3% versus consensus of
+0.4%; core CPI was +0.5% versus +0.2%.
May German PPI was flat versus predictions of
+0.3%.
Other
Update on business cycle indicators.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/06/business-cycle-indicators-mid-june-2
The
Fed
Bank of England keeps rates unchanged.
Goldman sees two rate cuts this year.
This analyst says the Fed needs to cut rates
sooner.
https://www.ft.com/content/40301e87-ca39-4b60-a9f2-88633e5f8ea7
So does this one.
Fiscal
Policy
CBO raises FY2024 estimate of budget deficit.
The economic world that we have lost.
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/the-economic-world-weve-lost/
Another expensive government project that
doesn’t work.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/expensive-incompetence-us-giving-230-million-gaza-air-pier
Recession
Big four recession indicators.
Recession risk rising?
https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-us-recession-risk-rising-warning-signs-are-starting-to-emerge/
The
Financial System
Giant Japanese bank reveals massive losses.
Bottom line.
A concentrated bet
(must read).
https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/06/16/weekly-market-pulse-a-concentrated-bet/?src=news
BofA survey shows
that investors will continue to pump money into stocks.
AI enthusiasm
prompts three Wall Street banks to up year stock market forecasts.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Mastercard (NYSE:MA)
declares $0.66/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
- Accenture press release (NYSE:ACN):
Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.13 misses by $0.02.
- Revenue
of $16.47B (-0.5% Y/Y) misses by $70M.
- Accenture (NYSE:ACN)
declares $1.29/share quarterly dividend, in line with
previous.
What
I am reading today
The
queen who survived Henry VIII.
Meet
Catherine Parr—the queen who survived Henry VIII (nationalgeographic.com)
AI
and the Supreme Court.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/06/claude-3-for-scotus.html
Video of the day.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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