The Morning Call--Rediscovering price discovery

 

The Morning Call

 

6/22/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bitcoin-bond-yields-surge-higher-macro-malaise-continues

 

Note: the good news is that yesterday’s rally carried the S&P back above the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend, thereby voiding last Thursday’s break. Plus, there are still the magnetic pull of those two huge gap down opens overhead that won’t be filled until the ~4015 level is reached. The bad news is that even with that kind of upside move the short and very short term trends are still down. Patience.

 

            What the bulls are focused on.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bigger

 

            The informational value in monitoring the two year Treasury spread.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/monitoring-fed-policy-expectations-with-the-2-year-treasury-yield/

 

            Is Dr. Copper trying to tell us something?

            https://allstarcharts.com/copper-gold-no-longer-on-hold/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

           

Weekly mortgage applications rose 4.2% while purchase applications were up 7.9%.

 

                          May existing home sales fell 3.4% versus consensus of -5.0%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/06/21/existing-home-sales-down-3-4-in-may

 

                        International

                       

 May UK CPI was +0.7% versus estimates of +0.6%; core CPI was +0.5%  versus +0.6%.

                       

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              The joy of rediscovering price discovery.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/we-now-see-fed-moving-toward-attempted-controlled-unwind-position

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              A license for central planning.

              https://reason.com/2022/06/20/the-defense-production-act-has-become-a-license-for-central-planning/

 

            Recession

 

              Goldman raises odds of a recession to 30%.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-21/goldman-warns-us-recession-risk-now-higher-and-more-front-loaded?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              China still faces growth problems.

              https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Views/DisplayPublication.aspx?type=document&IdPdf=46481

 

            Oil

 

              Oil caught markets off guard.

              https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/The-Perfect-Storm-In-Oil-Caught-Markets-Off-Guard.html

 

              Mean reversion?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/oil-price-reversions-inevitable-outcome-recessions

 

     Bottom line.

 

            Why are insiders buying when no one else is?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/06/21/why-insiders-are-bullish-when-nobody-else-is

 

            Morgan Stanley and Goldman still negative on stocks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-21/goldman-morgan-stanley-strategists-see-more-stock-market-losses?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            A bottom or the bottom?

            https://ritholtz.com/2022/06/the-challenging-middle/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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