Friday, June 24, 2022

The Morning Call--Powell says that he won't chicken out

 

The Morning Call

 

6/24/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-surge-recession-fears-tank-rate-hike-odds

 

            Update on margin debt.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cfx5loubrb

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The June flash manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4 versus forecasts of 56.0; the flash services PMI was 51.6 versus 53.5; the flash composite PMI was 51.2 versus 52.8.  Causing the Markets extreme anxiety:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-gold-bid-pmis-send-rate-hike-odds-plunging

 

The June Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was 12 versus predictions of 24.

 

                        International

 

                          May Japanese CPI was +0.2% versus estimates of +0.3%.

 

May UK retail sales fell 0.5% versus expectations of -0.7%; ex fuel they were down 0.7% versus -1.0%; June consumer confidence was -41 versus -40.

                       

The June German business climate index was reported at 92.3 versus  consensus of 92.9.

 

                        Other

                       

                          This housing market is nothing like 2007.

                          https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/20/heres-why-this-housing-downturn-is-nothing-like-the-last-one.html

           

                          Three reasons why the gas tax holiday is a bad idea.

                          https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2022/06/three-reasons-why-gas-tax-holiday-is.html

 

                          Banks easily pass this year’s stress test.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-33-banks-pass-fed-stress-test-setting-stage-billions-buybacks

 

            Inflation

 

              May advanced countries headline inflation rate.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/06/advanced-country-headline-inflation-rates-may-2022

 

                  Peak inflation watch.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/peak-inflation-watch-23-june-2022/#more-18225

 

                Recession

 

              NFIB signals that a recession is coming.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/06/23/nfib-signals-a-recession-is-coming-again

 

              But Powell says that he won’t chicken out.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/22/powell-tells-congress-the-fed-is-strongly-committed-to-bringing-inflation-down.html

 

              The markets say he will.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-greyskull

 

              More on what the markets think.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rate-hikes-end-year-following-3-rate-cuts-qe

 

              This analyst is predicting a profits recession.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/profit-recession-brewing-thatll-be-worst-50-years

 

     Bottom line

 

            Buying the dip.

            https://onveston.substack.com/p/buy-the-dip-is-not-a-strategy

 

            Three reasons that it is so bad that it is good.

            https://lplresearch.com/2022/06/22/3-reasons-it-is-so-bad-it-is-good/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Kroger (NYSE:KR) declares $0.26/share quarterly dividend, 23.8% increase from prior dividend of $0.21.

 

FedEx press release (NYSE:FDX): FQ4 Non-GAAP EPS of $6.87 misses by $0.01.

Revenue of $24.4B (+8.0% Y/Y) misses by $160M.

 

AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV) declares $1.41/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The international fight over a 300 year old treasure laden Spanish galleon.

            https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/06/20/who-owns-the-san-jose-the-international-fight-over-a-300-year-old-treasure-laden-spanish-galleon

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