Tuesday, June 7, 2022

The Morning Call--Forecasts for oil/gas prices continue to rise.

 

The Morning Call

 

 

6/7/22

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bond-yields-soar-stocks-puke-payrolls-gains

           

            How much longer will we be in a bear market?

            https://allstarcharts.com/12-months-of-no-progress/

 

            Hedge funds going net short Treasuries.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-06/hedge-funds-bet-against-10-year-treasuries-as-yields-approach-3?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Dr. Copper rebounds.

            https://allstarcharts.com/first-high-yield-bonds-now-dr-copper/

 

            Time to care about the dollar.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cepnisuma3

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The April trade balance was -$87.1 billion versus estimates of -$89.5 billon.

 

                        International

                         

April Japanese household spending rose 1.0% versus expectations of +1.3%; the April preliminary leading economic indicators  were 102.9 versus 101.0.

 

April German factory orders fell 2.7% versus predictions of +0.3%; the May construction PMI was 45.4 versus 47.2.

 

The May EU construction PMI was 49.2 versus consensus of 50.7.

 

The May UK final services PMI was 53.4 versus estimates of 51.8; the final composite PMI was 53.1 versus 51.8.

 

                        Other

 

                          Real hourly earnings in May.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/06/real-hourly-earnings-in-may

 

                          Update on big four economic indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/06/06/the-big-four-economic-indicators-may-employment

                       

                          May rail carloads down.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/06/aar-may-rail-carloads-and-intermodal.html

 

                          Housing costs/household income near highs.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/06/black-knight-mortgage-monitor-housing.html

 

                          Housing inventories up YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/06/housing-inventory-june-6th-update.html

 

                          Update on four high frequency economic indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/06/four-high-frequency-indicators-for.html

           

            Inflation

 

              Natural gas prices soaring.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/perfect-storm-factors-sends-us-natural-gas-prices-soaring

 

              Citi and Barclay’s raise crude oil price forecasts.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/citi-and-barclays-capitulate-bearish-crude-views-raise-oil-price-forecasts

 

              So does Goldman.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-again-hikes-oil-price-target-now-sees-barrel-hitting-140-125

           

     Bottom line

 

            Update on valuations.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/06/06/is-the-market-still-overvalued

 

            Concealing volatility.

            https://alephblog.com/2022/06/05/concealing-volatility/

 

            Morgan Stanley’s Wilson sticks with his S&P 3400 forecast.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mike-wilson-bear-market-rally-will-last-few-more-weeks-then-sp-will-sink-3400-mid-august

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) declares $0.38/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The first privately funded spotter of killer asteroids is here.

            https://www.wired.com/story/the-first-privately-funded-killer-asteroid-spotter-is-here/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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