The Morning Call
6/15/22
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-gas-bonds-dump-dollar-vix-jump-ahead-fed
Stocks rally
around Fed day.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cezianxc7x
The majority of
the biggest market up days occur during a bear market.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-bear-markets-trick-gullible-investors-11654880407
The latest Fund
Manager Survey.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mood-wall-street-has-never-been-more-apocalyptic
Hedge funds just
sold stocks at the fastest pace on record.
Yield curve now
inverted.
Japanese bond futures
suffer biggest rout since 2013.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
were up 6.6% while purchase applications were up 8.1%.
Month the date
retail chain store sales grew less rapidly than in the prior week.
May PPI was up 0.8%, in line; core PPI was up
0.5% versus +0.6%.
May retail sales
fell 0.3% versus expectations of +3.0%; ex autos, they were up 0.5% versus
+0.8%.
The June NY Fed manufacturing
index came in at -1.2 versus forecasts of +3.0.
International
April Japanese machinery orders rose 10.8%
versus consensus of -1.5%.
The April EU trade
balance was E-32.4 billion versus predictions of E-23.0 billion; April industrial
production was up 0.4% versus +0.5%.
May Chinese YoY industrial
production was up 0.7% versus estimates of -0.7%; May YoY retail sales were
down 6.7% versus -7.1%; May YoY fixed asst investment was up 6.2% versus +6.0%;
the May unemployment rate was 5.9% versus 6.1%.
Other
The June macroeconomists survey.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/06/igm-ft-macroeconomists-survey-for-june
Economic hurricane?
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/economic-hurricane-hyperbole-or-real-possibility
The
Fed
What could cause the Fed to pivot?
The ECB’s dilemma.
https://www.philosophyofmoney.net/euro-crisis-ii/
ECB emergency meeting delivers nothing burger.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-holds-emergency-meeting-discuss-market-turmoil
Central banks coming under fire (and it is
about time).
Money supply growth points to recession.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/slowing-money-supply-growth-2022-points-recession
Bottom line
Forward earnings estimates
are too high.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/lastman
No one said this
was easy.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/06/12/weekly-market-pulse-no-one-said-this-was-easy/
Tackling a bear
market.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1095147/an-8-step-plan-to-tackle-a-bear-market
The math on
possible lows.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=stockmarket
Back to basics investing.
How close are we to a bottom?
https://www.capitalspectator.com/sp-500-risk-profile-14-june-2022/
Estimating future stock returns.
https://alephblog.com/2022/06/14/estimating-future-stock-returns-march-2022-update/
Pay more attention to earnings trends than multiples.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/ckcazjg5-g
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
FedEx (NYSE:FDX) declares $1.15/share quarterly dividend, 53.3% increase from prior
dividend of $0.75.
Microsoft
(NASDAQ:MSFT) declares $0.62/share quarterly dividend,
in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
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