The Morning Call
6/14/22
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/carnage
Note: the S&P closed
below its 5/20 low (now officially in a bear market), the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level and a short hair away from the lower boundary of its
intermediate term uptrend (~3705). I said yesterday that these were the levels
to watch; and so far, the results have not been encouraging. Further, the long
bond ended below the lower boundary of its intermediate term trading range. If
that challenge is successful, I think that really spells trouble in stock land.
Still, at least for now, the S&P intermediate term uptrend remains intact. Plus,
it had its second gap down open in a row---suggesting that the momentum to the
downside is getting stretched.
Bond market now
pricing in strong likelihood of a 75 basis point rate hike.
Which is being
given substance by latest article by WSJ Fed ‘whisperer.’
The higher dollar
is costing US companies billions in earnings.
https://www.ft.com/content/189a161c-7247-431d-83fa-f7645ee22573
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
May consumer inflation
expectations were for +6.6% versus projections of +6.2%.
The May small
business optimism index came in at 93.1 versus forecasts of 93.0.
International
April Japanese industrial production fell
1.5% versus estimates of -1.3%.
The April UK
unemployment rate was 3.8% versus predictions of 3.6%; April average earnings
were up 6.8% versus +7.6%.
May German CPI rose 0.9%, in line; May PPI
was up 1.0% versus +1.3%.
June EU economic
sentiment was -28.0 versus expectations of -25.9; June German economic sentiment
was -28.0 versus -27.5.
Other
Update on five high frequency economic
indicators.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/06/five-high-frequency-indicators-for.html
Last week in the economic charts.
https://compoundadvisors.com/2022/9-chart-monday-6-13-22
The
Fed
The Fed tightening need not result to
recession (must read).
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/06/fed-tightening-need-not-result-in.html
Japan on the verge of a systematic collapse.
Fiscal
Policy
A trillion here, a trillion there……….
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/06/10/a-trillion-here-a-trillion-there
Uncle Sam isn’t Santa Claus.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=consumers
Inflation
More on peak inflation.
https://reason.com/2022/06/10/has-inflation-peaked/
Oil spikes on reports that Libya is shutting
down most of its oil fields.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/libya-loses-11-million-bpd-it-shuts-down-nearly-all-its-oil-fields
Bottom line.
One analyst’s
answer on how to handle this market.
https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/06/13/trend-following/
Can we have a bear
market when earrings are holding up?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cvc00o2lee
The latest from
Morgan Stanley.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/debate-over-morgan-stanley-unloads-dismal-state-us-consumer
Beware mean
reversion (how many times have I said that).
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/laws-mean-reversion-have-begun-their-summer-offensive
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Oracle press release (NYSE:ORCL): FQ4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.54 beats by $0.16.
Revenue
of $11.84B (+5.4% Y/Y) beats by $190M.
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) declares $0.32/share quarterly dividend, 18.5% increase from prior
dividend of $0.27.
What
I am reading today
Western
self-destruction continues (must read).
The problem of
group think.
The 2022 social
security trustees’ report is too optimistic.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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