The Morning Call
10/7/21
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
More detail:
(1)
the S&P finished above its 100 DMA, negating
Monday’s challenge; however, it remained within the downtrend off its 9/2
high---leaving it with directional uncertainty,
(2)
the long bond was up but remained below its 200 DMA
[now support] for the third day; if closes below that DMA today, it will revert
to resistance,
(3)
the dollar continued to rally.
Higher interest
rates and a strong dollar are a recipe for deteriorating corporate profits,
adding to the directional uncertainty for the S&P.
Beneath the surface.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cbsmems79r
Important (inflation)
charts to watch.
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2021/10/important-charts-to-watch.html
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless
claims were up 326,000 versus estimates of 348,000. More importantly, seven million individuals lost
unemployment benefits in the last two weeks.
International
Q2 UK labor productivity was up 0.1% versus +0.6%
in Q1.
The
preliminary August Japanese leading economic
indicators came in at 101.8 versus 104.1 in July.
August German industrial
production fell 4.0% versus forecasts of -0.4%.
Other
Q3 GDP nowcasts continue to decline.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economic-growth-estimate-for-q3-ticks-lower-again/
August median household income.
Energy transition
will take decades not years (note: ignore the opening remarks from the
blogger).
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/10/the-energy-transition-will-take-decades-not-years.html
Data on auto production/sales.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/detail/recent-activity/
The
Fed
ECB already preparing for next QE.
Fiscal
Policy
McConnell offers short term fix to debt
ceiling problem.
Inflation
UK index linked bonds implying 7% inflation
by April 2022.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uk-inflation-hit-7-april
China
Overleverage
and risk of default continue to worry Chinese investors.
Bottom line
A perspective on
secular bull and bear markets.
Valuations not stories
ultimately determine investment returns.
https://www.ft.com/content/986fffdc-4138-4e29-bb38-5fade178065f
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Being
flexible in your retirement withdrawal rate.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1060611/the-good-news-for-upcoming-retirees
Lousy management plagues the Mob.
Dozens of foreign CIA agents are
being captured or killed.
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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