The Morning Call
10/8/21
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crushingly-boring-session-ends-spoos-failing-hold-4400
More detail.
(1)
there were a lot of gap up/down openings yesterday
in the stocks/ETF’s/ indices that I follow, meaning that those gaps need to be
filled. In other words, a move in the
opposite direction, reinforcing the notion in the above link that volatility is
not going away,
(2)
the S&P had a gap up open. It remained above its 100 DMA [now resistance]
for a second day; if it stays there through the close today, it will revert to support. It also closed above the downtrend off the
9/2 high. Both of the above suggest that
the worst is over; but as I indicated in (1), the preponderance of yesterday’s
pin action suggest otherwise,
(3)
the long bond had a gap down open. It finished below its 200 DMA for the fourth
day, reverting to resistance. This
performance also indicates that equites still have a problem [inflation],
(4)
the dollar was quiet [noncommittal].
US government bond
dealers warn of fragility in the Treasury market.
https://www.ft.com/content/dc916fa5-6b7b-420b-9117-5123ef707356
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
September nonfarm
payrolls rose 194,000 versus expectations of +500,000; the unemployment rate
was 4.8% versus 5.1%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/payrolls-huge-miss-just-194k-jobs-added-september-worst-month-2021
International
The August German
trade balance was E13 billion versus estimates of E15.6 billion.
August Japanese household
spending fell 3.9% versus predictions of -2.0%; August YoY cash earnings rose
0.7% versus +0.6% in July.
The September
Chinese Caixin services PMI came in at 53.4 versus 46.7 in August; the
September Caixin composite PMI was 51.4 versus 47.2 in August.
Other
Update on US/China trade stats.
A survey of inflationary expectations.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/10/one-year-ahead-cpi-inflation-expectations
Fiscal
Policy
Irresponsible.
https://www.cato.org/blog/rising-debt-against-children
The debt ceiling: why anything that stops
government spending is good.
https://alephblog.com/2021/10/07/why-i-like-the-debt-ceiling/
Senate kicks debt ceiling can down the road.
Inflation
Global food prices hit new high.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/global-food-prices-hit-fresh-decade-high
Cost push inflation is not transitory.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/labor-strikes-target-big-food-workers-seize-industry-turmoil
Oil market needs huge investment to avoid
supply collapse.
China
Energy problems in China.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/coal-christmas
The
coronavirus
There is no executive order, regulation, etc.
that mandates vaccination.
https://brownstone.org/articles/bidens-vaccination-mandate-where-are-the-regulations/
Bottom line.
More on
valuations.
Risks to consider.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/czu0-zxb8v
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Most
of the daily headlines are useless noise.
https://ritholtz.com/2021/10/raising-the-debt-ceiling/
Friday morning humor.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/the-thing-is-chris-loder-mp-does-actually-have-a-point
Understanding the difference between
authoritarianism and totalitarianism.
One of the largest comets ever seen is
headed our way.
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
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