The Morning Call
10/20/21
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications fell 6.3% while purchase applications dropped 4.9%
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.
International
The September
Japanese trade balance was -Y622.8 billion versus consensus of -Y519.2 billion.
September German
PPI was +2.3% versus projections of +1.0%; September UK CPI was +0.3% versus
+0.4%, core CPI was +0.4% versus +0.5%; September EU CPI was +0.5%, in line.
Other
Reality versus perception (on the economy)
(must read).
https://alhambrapartners.com/2021/10/17/weekly-market-pulse-perception-vs-reality/
This a great discussion
about the causes behind the supply chain disruptions (another must read).
https://global-macro-monitor.com/2021/10/18/hot-retail-sales-not-supply-chain-positive/
WSJ survey forecasts for GDP downgraded.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/10/gdp-forecasts-2
Mid-October business cycle indicators.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/10/business-cycle-indicators-mid-october
This article argues
that the change in US demographics is setting us up for higher rates. I don’t disagree with that but it also postulates
that economic growth will increase. It
then turns around gives some of the reasons why growth won’t accelerate: (1)
deglobalization, meaning shorter but more expensive supply chains [costs] and
(2) climate change which will entail billions and billions spent on
nonproductive, higher cost ‘green’ investments.
OECD sees slower global economic growth.
The
Atlanta Fed slashes its Q3 GDP growth forecast to 0.5%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/atlanta-fed-says-us-economy-suddenly-verge-contraction
The Fed
Ed
Yardini argues against a taper tantrum.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/detail/recent-activity/
Inflation
Supply crunch
inflation poses unfixable dilemma for central banks. Keep in mind that supply crunch inflation (due
to shortages caused by supply chain disruptions) is different from cost push inflation
(rising labor costs).
Supermarket owner says food price going up ‘tremendously’.
Persistent inflation poses rick to stock
prices.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/persistent-inflation-poses-real-threat-stock-prices
China
China’s leveraged prosperity model is doomed.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.60 beats by $0.25; GAAP EPS
of $1.37 misses by $0.80.
Revenue of $23.34B (+10.7% Y/Y) misses
by $380M.
Canadian National
Railway (NYSE:CNI): Q3
Non-GAAP EPS of C$1.52 beats by C$0.10; GAAP EPS of C$2.37.
Revenue of C$3.59B (+5.3% Y/Y) beats
by C$770M.
Canadian National
Railway (NYSE:CNI) declares CAD 0.615/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM): Q4
Non-GAAP EPS of $1.26 misses by $0.02; GAAP EPS of $1.18 misses
by $0.05.
Revenue
of $831M (+11.1% Y/Y) misses by $5.64M.
What
I am reading today
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment