Tuesday, October 12, 2021

The Morning Call--The inflation debate

 

The Morning Call

 

10/12/21

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-pumpndump-crypto-jumps-bonds-away-columbus-day

 

Note: the S&P closed right on its 100 DMA (now support) and the upper boundary of the recent very short term downtrend (off its 9/2 high).  Follow through.

 

            US companies authorize $870 billion in stock buybacks.

            https://www.ft.com/content/dd9a7b72-1f9b-4b66-ac75-200d1653ce6f

 

            Trouble in Chinese bond land.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-disastrous-day-all-hell-breaks-loose-chinas-bond-markets

 

            Everyone is long the dollar.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cp6dkazkjc

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The September small business optimism index came in at 99.1 versus 100.1 in August.

 

                        International

 

                          August UK unemployment was reported at 4.5%, in line.

 

September Japanese PPI was 0.3%, in line; September German PPI was 0.8% versus 0.5% recorded in August.

 

October EU economic sentiment came in at 21.0 versus 31.1 in September; October German economic sentiment was 22.3 versus estimates of 24.0.

 

                        Other

 

            Inflation

 

              Green inflation.

              https://blog.evergreengavekal.com/green-energy-a-bubble-in-unrealistic-expectations/

 

              Shadow inflations is all around us.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/10/upshot/shadow-inflation-analysis.html

 

              Get ready for higher food prices.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/kraft-heinz-says-customers-must-get-use-higher-food-prices

 

              Goldman: multi year boom in housing prices.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/10/goldman-on-housing-multi-year-boom-in.html

               

              Markets starting to question ‘transitory’.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-are-starting-question-transitory-narrative

 

    Bottom line

 

            This article argues that interest rates/inflation are headed lower.  I love Lance Roberts’ work and his argument in this piece is good as far as it goes.  What I think that he is ignoring is the impact of politics on production of critical elements of the economy---oil being the prime example.  Oil prices are going up, not because demand is rising but because supply is falling due the pressure on oil company management to comply with the ‘climate change’.  So, a stagnate economy/flat demand (which is also my forecast) is not the deciding factor in the pricing of oil.  Now think water, any mineral that is mined, lumber, etc., etc.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/10/11/the-5000-year-view-of-rates-the-economic-consequences

 

            Ed Yardini sort of agrees.

            https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/detail/recent-activity/

 

And add to that the economic impact of the coronavirus politics, i.e., lockdowns and other restrictions that impact commerce.  How long will the federal government assume its right to restrict the activity of the unwashed masses?

            https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/11/business/supply-chain-crisis-savannah-port.html

 

                Don’t forget forced vaccine mandated layoffs.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabo-just-wait-until-we-see-impact-force-vaccine-mandate-layoffs-labor-force

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST): Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.42 in-line.

Revenue of $1.55B (+9.9% Y/Y) beats by $10M.

 

Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) declares $0.28/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            An interesting bit of Wall Street history.

            https://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2021/10/tennessee-celeste-claflin.html

 

 

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