The Morning Call
10/12/21
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-pumpndump-crypto-jumps-bonds-away-columbus-day
Note: the S&P
closed right on its 100 DMA (now support) and the upper boundary of the recent
very short term downtrend (off its 9/2 high).
Follow through.
US companies
authorize $870 billion in stock buybacks.
https://www.ft.com/content/dd9a7b72-1f9b-4b66-ac75-200d1653ce6f
Trouble in Chinese
bond land.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-disastrous-day-all-hell-breaks-loose-chinas-bond-markets
Everyone is long
the dollar.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cp6dkazkjc
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The September
small business optimism index came in at 99.1 versus 100.1 in August.
International
August UK unemployment was reported at 4.5%, in
line.
September Japanese
PPI was 0.3%, in line; September German PPI was 0.8% versus 0.5% recorded in
August.
October EU economic
sentiment came in at 21.0 versus 31.1 in September; October German economic sentiment
was 22.3 versus estimates of 24.0.
Other
Inflation
Green inflation.
https://blog.evergreengavekal.com/green-energy-a-bubble-in-unrealistic-expectations/
Shadow inflations is all around us.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/10/upshot/shadow-inflation-analysis.html
Get ready for higher food prices.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/kraft-heinz-says-customers-must-get-use-higher-food-prices
Goldman: multi year boom in housing prices.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/10/goldman-on-housing-multi-year-boom-in.html
Markets starting to question ‘transitory’.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-are-starting-question-transitory-narrative
Bottom line
This article argues
that interest rates/inflation are headed lower.
I love Lance Roberts’ work and his argument in this piece is good as far
as it goes. What I think that he is ignoring
is the impact of politics on production of critical elements of the
economy---oil being the prime example.
Oil prices are going up, not because demand is rising but because supply
is falling due the pressure on oil company management to comply with the ‘climate
change’. So, a stagnate economy/flat demand
(which is also my forecast) is not the deciding factor in the pricing of
oil. Now think water, any mineral that
is mined, lumber, etc., etc.
Ed Yardini sort of
agrees.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/detail/recent-activity/
And add to that
the economic impact of the coronavirus politics, i.e., lockdowns and other
restrictions that impact commerce. How
long will the federal government assume its right to restrict the activity of
the unwashed masses?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/11/business/supply-chain-crisis-savannah-port.html
Don’t forget forced vaccine mandated layoffs.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST): Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.42 in-line.
Revenue
of $1.55B (+9.9% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) declares $0.28/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
An
interesting bit of Wall Street history.
https://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2021/10/tennessee-celeste-claflin.html
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