Wednesday, October 27, 2021

The Morning Call--The 'transitory' argument

 

The Morning Call

 

10/27/21

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/long-bond-big-caps-black-gold-bid-china-tech-chunders

 

            Epic reset in volatility

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/volatilitynote

 

            A list of Market risks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/risks

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.3% while purchase applications were up 3.5%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew at approximately the same rate as in the prior week.

 

The August Case Shiller home price index was up 0.9% versus estimates of up 1.5%.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/10/case-shiller-national-house-price-index.html

 

September new home sales rose 13.9% versus predictions of +8.2%.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/10/new-home-sales-increase-to-800000.html

 

September durable goods orders declined 0.4% versus projections of -1.1%; ex transportation, they advanced 0.4%, in line.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-durables-goods-orders-slide-september

 

October consumer confidence came in at 113.8 versus forecasts of 108.3.

 

The October Richmond Fed manufacturing index was reported at 12 versus -3 in September.

 

                        International

 

September YoY Chinese industrial profits increased 44.7% versus +49.5% in August.

 

November German consumer confidence was reported at +0.9 versus expectations of -0.5.

 

                        Other

 

                          Who owns the national debt?

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/10/september-2021-snapshot-of-who-owns-us.html#.YXg9pBrMKUk

 

                          Update on household income.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/10/25/updated-u-s-household-incomes-a-50-year-perspective

 

            Inflation

 

              More on the ‘transitory’ argument.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2021/10/24/weekly-market-pulse-inflation-scare-2/

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/opinion-authers-inflation-tracker/?srnd=premium

 

                The coronavirus

 

              More on Fauci’s (NIH’s) lie.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/nih-director-shredded-over-risky-research-wuhan-after-cnn-interview-goes-sideways

 

 

     Bottom line

 

            Balancing emotion and science in volatile markets.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/10/26/staying-calm-even-if-markets-arent

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

3M (NYSE:MMM): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.45 beats by $0.22; GAAP EPS of $2.45 beats by $0.24.

Revenue of $8.94B (+7.1% Y/Y) beats by $270M.

 

UPS (NYSE:UPS): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.71 beats by $0.16; GAAP EPS of $2.65 beats by $0.10.

Revenue of $23.2B (+9.2% Y/Y) beats by $630M.

 

C.H. Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ:CHRW): Q3 GAAP EPS of $1.85 beats by $0.42.

Revenue of $6.3B (+49.3% Y/Y) beats by $820M.

 

Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.27 beats by $0.19; GAAP EPS of $2.71 beats by $0.64.

Revenue of $45.3B (+21.8% Y/Y) beats by $1.3B.

 

Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP): Q1 GAAP EPS of $1.65 beats by $0.16.

Revenue of $3.83B (+9.4% Y/Y) beats by $80M.

 

General Dynamics (NYSE:GD): Q3 GAAP EPS of $3.07 beats by $0.09.

Revenue of $9.57B (+1.5% Y/Y) misses by $290M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Robert Shiller on the future of home prices.

            https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-housing-market-long-term-price-outlook-by-robert-j-shiller-2021-10

 

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