The Morning Call
10/28/21
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the charts.
The inflow of net
new money into the stock market is not likely to be repeated.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cbpkbntvwx
I am not the only
one confused by the recent pin action in stock and bond markets
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-market-paradox
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly jobless claims totaled 281,000 versus
consensus of 290,000.
Preliminary Q3 GDP
growth was 2.0% versus predictions of 2.7%; the price index was 5.7% versus
5.5%; the core price index was 4.5%, in line.
International
September Japanese
retail sales rose 2.7% versus a 4.0% decline in August.
October German
unemployment was 5.4%, in line; October CPI was +0.5%, also in line.
October EU
consumer confidence was -4.8%, in line; October economic sentiment was 118.6
versus 117.8 in September; October industrial sentiment was 14.2 versus 14.1 in
September; October services sentiment was 18.2 versus 15.3 in September;
October inflation expectations were 40.0 versus 33.1 in September.
Other
Stagnation in the
new home market.
$100 oil or yet another
example of the stupidity of our political class (by the way, this post is from
my favorite liberal, ooops, progressive economist).
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/10/a-global-oil-shortage-is-inevitable.html
Another lowering of GDP nowcast.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/10/updating-nowcasts
Germany cuts 2021
GDP growth forecast.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/germany-cuts-2021-gdp-forecast-25-due-soaring-energy-costs
The
Fed
The Fed’s challenges.
https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-faces-showdown-supply-demand-patience-collide-2021-10-27/
Why the Fed continues to implement an irresponsible
monetary policy.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-federal-reserve-hiding-us
Bank of Canada turns more hawkish.
The Royal Band of Australia just ended its
QE.
But ECB leaves policy unchanged.
Fiscal
Policy
The growing (irresponsible) national deficit/debt
problem.
https://global-macro-monitor.com/2021/10/25/the-u-s-budget-deficit/
The true cost of government spending (Biden’s
plan).
Inflation
Goldman sees light at the end of the supply
chain disruption tunnel.
Fed governor discusses inflation calculations.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/central-banker-comes-clean-discusses-data-manipulation
The impact of
higher oil prices on other industries.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-food-prices-set-soar-oil-and-gas-crunch-continues
China
Taiwanese
president confirms US troops in Taiwan.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/president-tsai-confirms-us-boots-ground-taiwan
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of
$3.27 misses by $0.04; GAAP EPS of $3.31 beats
by $0.02.
Revenue
of $1.95B (+21.9% Y/Y) misses by $20M.
Altria (NYSE:MO): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.22 misses by
$0.04; GAAP EPS of -$1.48 misses by $2.74.
Revenue
of $5.53B (-2.5% Y/Y) misses by $200M.
Illinois
Tool Works (NYSE:ITW): Q3 GAAP EPS of
$2.02 beats by $0.01.
Revenue
of $3.56B (+7.6% Y/Y) in-line.
Mastercard (NYSE:MA): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of
$2.37 beats by $0.18; GAAP EPS of $2.44 beats
by $0.25.
Revenue
of $5B (+30.2% Y/Y) beats by $50M.
W.W. Grainger (NYSE:GWW) declares $1.62/share quarterly dividend, in line with
previous.
Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) declares $0.88/share quarterly dividend, 1.1% increase from
prior dividend of $0.87.
What
I am reading today
Internal
versus external benchmarks.
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/internal-vs-external-benchmarks/
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