The Morning Call--BofA issues warning

 

The Morning Call

 

12/10/21

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-induced-taper-anxiety-wrecks-tech-crushes-crypto-bonds-bounce

 

The spread in sentiment between smart money investors and dumb money investors is at historic highs.

            https://sentimentrader.com/blog/the-spread-in-sentiment-between-smart-and-dumb-money-is-historic/

 

            When the smart money says, ‘sold to you.’

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/when-smart-money-says-sold-you

 

            Will bond yields ever rise again (item three in this article)?

            https://www.pragcap.com/three-things-i-think-i-think-nyc-is-alive/

 

            A possible answer. Another terrible 30 year auction.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/another-catastrophic-30y-auction-triggers-alarm-ahead-tomorrows-nosebleeding-cpi-print

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

November CPI came in at +0.8% versus estimates of +0.7%; core CPI was +0.5%, in line.

 

                        International

 

The October UK trade balance was -L2.0 billion versus forecasts of -L3.2 billion; October GDP growth was +0.1% versus +0.4%; October industrial production was -0.6% versus +0.1%; October YoY construction output was +3.2% versus +5.0%.

 

November Japanese PPI rose +0.6% versus consensus of +0.3%.

 

November German CPI fell 0.2%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          What some indicators are suggesting about the economic outlook.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/12/inflation-breakeven-term-spread-risk-and-uncertainty-a-snapshot

 

                          Household net worth rises $2.4 trillion in Q3.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/12/feds-flow-of-funds-household-net-worth.html

 

                          And some analysis of the above (must read).

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/household-net-worth-hits-record-145-trillion-34-trillion-covid-there-catch

 

            Inflation

 

              Fertilizer inflation

              https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/global-farmers-facing-fertiliser-sticker-shock-may-cut-use-raising-food-security-2021-12-09/

 

              The current inflation defied old models

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-inflation-defies-the-old-models-11638978991

 

            The coronavirus

 

              More data on the vaccine.

              https://alephblog.com/2021/12/07/on-the-vaers-database/

 

     Bottom line

 

            Trying to define/quantify a bubble.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/12/the-definition-of-bubble.html#.YbIzmNDMKUk

 

            Update on the Buffett indicator.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/12/09/market-cap-to-gdp-november-buffett-valuation-indicator

 

            BofA issues warning.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/09/business/dealbook/stock-markets-warnings.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Hormel Foods (NYSE:HRL): Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.51 beats by $0.01.

Revenue of $3.45B (+42.6% Y/Y) beats by $230M.

 

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.21 beats by $0.10; GAAP EPS of -$0.46 misses by $1.31.

Revenue of $10.4B (+6.1% Y/Y) beats by $190M.

 

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) declares $0.32/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Medtronic (NYSE:MDT) declares $0.63/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Ignoring the bit about Australia, I thought this an interesting piece on the chemistry of reducing pollution from diesel engines.

            https://doomberg.substack.com/p/how-to-brick-an-entire-economy

 

            What is wrong with bitcoin?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/soggy

 

 

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