Friday, December 17, 2021

The Morning Call---The math of future returns

 

The Morning Call

 

12/17/21

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-pump-dumped-dollar-slumps-gold-jumps-0

 

            The unraveling (must read).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unraveling

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

November industrial production was up 0.5% versus forecasts of up 0.7%; capacity utilization was 76.8%, in line.

 

The December flash manufacturing PMI came in at 57.8 versus consensus of 58.5; the flash services PMI was 57.5 versus 58.5; the flash composite PMI was 56.9 versus 57.4.

 

The December Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was reported at 10 versus estimates of 21.

 

                        International

 

October EU YoY construction output rose 4.4% versus projections of +2.3%; November new car registrations were down 20.5% versus -17.0%; November CPI was +0.4% versus +0.5%.

 

November German PPI was 0.8% versus expectations of 1.4%; the December business climate index was 94.7 versus 95.3.

 

November UK retail sales were up 1.4% versus predictions of +0.8%; ex fuel, they were up 1.1% versus +0.8%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on big four economic indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/12/16/the-big-four-industrial-production-up-0-5-in-november

 

            The Fed

 

              Another potential problem created by a cheap money policy.

              https://www.ft.com/content/67b625e7-87ab-478e-aca1-995f150e6b9c

 

              For emphasis.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-pivot-means-judgment-day-3200-corporate-zombies

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Biden’s $2 trillion spending plan is not happening---at least for now.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-agenda-crumbles-after-manchin-murks-child-tax-credit-will-try-again-2022

 

            Inflation

 

              When will inflation peak?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/still-waiting-for-inflation-to-peak/

 

            The coronavirus

 

Study shows omicron variant more infectious but less severe than Covid---just like the Delta variant.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-15/omicron-infects-70-times-faster-but-is-less-severe-study-says?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                       

       Bottom line

 

            Update on future stock returns (must read).

            https://www.ft.com/content/67b625e7-87ab-478e-aca1-995f150e6b9c

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

FedEx (NYSE:FDX): FQ2 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.83 beats by $0.54; GAAP EPS of $3.88 misses by $0.21.

Revenue of $23.5B (+14.1% Y/Y) beats by $1.08B.

 

AT&T (NYSE:T) declares $0.52/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Some people’s capacity for self-destruction apparently has no end.

            https://doomberg.substack.com/p/california-ditzkrieg

 

            Six rules for avoiding market panic attacks.

            https://tonyisola.com/2021/12/six-rules-for-avoiding-market-panic-attacks/

           

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment