Wednesday, December 15, 2021

The Morning Call---Breadth continues to deteriorate

 

The Morning Call

 

12/15/21

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bond-commodities-crumble-dollar-rips-ahead-fed

 

            Expect a volatile options expiration on Friday.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/43-trillion-reasons-be-nervous-fridays-option-expiration

 

            Breadth continues to deteriorate.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-rings-alarm-collapsing-market-breadth-51-all-market-gains-april-are-just-5-stocks

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 4.9% while purchase applications were up 0.7%.

                       

  November retail sales increased 0.3% versus expectations of +0.8%; ex  autos, they were up +0.3% versus +0.9%.

 

The December NY Fed manufacturing index came in at 31.9 versus projections of 25.0

 

                        International

 

November Chinese YoY industrial production was up 3.8% versus consensus of +3.6%; November YoY retail sales were up 3.9% versus +4.6%; November YoY fixed asset investments were up 5.2% versus +5.4%; the November unemployment rate was 5.2% versus 4.9%.

 

November UK CPI was +0.7% versus estimates of +0.4%; core CPI was +0.5% versus +0.3%; the retail price index weas +0.7% versus +0.4%; PPI was +0.9% versus +0.8%; core PPI was +0.8% versus +0.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                          There is not enough oil.

                          https://doomberg.substack.com/p/theres-not-enough-oil

 

            The Fed

 

              The ECB’s dilemma.

              https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2021/12/the-ecbs-dilemma.html

 

            Inflation

 

              Has inflation peaked?

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2021/12/12/weekly-market-pulse-has-inflation-peaked/

 

            China

 

              What are the odds of war with China?

              https://americanconsequences.com/the-two-global-hot-spots-most-likely-to-upend-your-portfolio-in-2022/

 

              Update on US/China trade.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2021/12/us-china-trade-spikes-up-on-us-soybean.html#.Ybjjor3MKUk

 

    Bottom line

 

            The increasing frequency of bubbles.

            https://www.ft.com/content/e1c1fcf7-9bd9-47ac-abce-d3c1c9159a3e

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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