The Morning Call
3/25/19
The
Market
Technical
The
S&P closed Friday at a critical juncture---right on the lower boundary of
its very short term uptrend and, more importantly, the 2800 level. If it holds, then 2800 will become support
and Friday will just be another volatile day in the rear view mirror. If it doesn’t then the technical talk will start
to focus on whether the breakout above 2800/2811/2815 was a giant bull
trap. Right now, all we can do is await
the Market’s judgment.
The
long bond rose last week on rising fears of a recession. On Friday, it spiked 1 ½ % on volume and
established a very short term uptrend. As
you can see, it also gapped open. As I usually
point out, gaps get closed---though, in this case, that can occur without
threatening upside momentum.
The
dollar had a volatile week, but finished modestly to the upside and, importantly,
above its prior low. It remains above both
MA’s and in a short term uptrend. So, the
chart remains strong. In view of the global
recession concerns, it suggests investors are betting that the US economy will
be the prettiest house on an ugly street.
GLD
had another good week, continuing the bounce off a minor double bottom. Given that it remains above both MA’s and
within a short term uptrend, its chart remains positive.
As
would be expected, the VIX soared on Friday.
However, it challenged its 200 DMA and backed off. That is a slight plus on a horrendous trading
day. Follow through.
Fundamental
Headlines
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Revenue of $1.32B (-0.8%
Y/Y) misses by $10M.
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
The
February Chicago Fed national activity index came in at -.29 versus expectations
of -.25.
International
The
January Japanese all activity index was reported at -.2 versus estimates of
+.2.
The
March German business climate index was 99.6 versus forecasts of 98.5.
Other
Update on
Brexit.
What
I am reading today
Cryptocurrencies are here
to stay.
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