Monday, March 25, 2019

Monday Morning Chartology


The Morning Call

3/25/19

The Market
         
    Technical

            The S&P closed Friday at a critical juncture---right on the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend and, more importantly, the 2800 level.  If it holds, then 2800 will become support and Friday will just be another volatile day in the rear view mirror.  If it doesn’t then the technical talk will start to focus on whether the breakout above 2800/2811/2815 was a giant bull trap.  Right now, all we can do is await the Market’s judgment.



            The long bond rose last week on rising fears of a recession.  On Friday, it spiked 1 ½ % on volume and established a very short term uptrend.  As you can see, it also gapped open.  As I usually point out, gaps get closed---though, in this case, that can occur without threatening upside momentum.



            The dollar had a volatile week, but finished modestly to the upside and, importantly, above its prior low.   It remains above both MA’s and in a short term uptrend.  So, the chart remains strong.  In view of the global recession concerns, it suggests investors are betting that the US economy will be the prettiest house on an ugly street.



            GLD had another good week, continuing the bounce off a minor double bottom.  Given that it remains above both MA’s and within a short term uptrend, its chart remains positive.



            As would be expected, the VIX soared on Friday.  However, it challenged its 200 DMA and backed off.  That is a slight plus on a horrendous trading day.  Follow through.




    Fundamental

       Headlines


    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Tiffany (NYSE:TIF): Q4 GAAP EPS of $1.67 beats by $0.07.
Revenue of $1.32B (-0.8% Y/Y) misses by $10M.

Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The February Chicago Fed national activity index came in at -.29 versus expectations of -.25.

     International

            The January Japanese all activity index was reported at -.2 versus estimates of +.2.

            The March German business climate index was 99.6 versus forecasts of 98.5.

    Other

Update on Brexit.

What I am reading today

            Cryptocurrencies are here to stay.


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