Tuesday, March 19, 2019

The Morning Call--All eyes on the FOMC


The Morning Call

3/19/19

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 25914, S&P 2832) had another good day.  S&P closed well above the 2800 (and even the 2811/2815) quad top---marking a breakout in my work (and if it closes above 2815 today, it will also signify a break of the 2811/2815 top crowd).  If it proves to be a break, then next stop is the indices’ all-time highs (26917/2942)

Volume fell (but that is not surprising following Friday’s quad expirations) and breadth improved.

The VIX rose 1 ¾ %, but still finished below the late February/early March double bottom; so, it appears headed for the lower boundary of its short term trading range.

The long bond was off fractionally.  It remains in the upper tier of the trading range defined by a quad top and a double bottom.  The chart remains reasonably strong.

The dollar declined three cents, closing below the upper boundary of the November to present trading range and back below the lower boundary of a recently established very short term uptrend (if it remains there through the close today, that trend will be voided).  Nonetheless, the chart remains strong, ending above both MA’s and within a short term uptrend.

GLD advanced, finishing above both MA’s and in a short term uptrend.

Bottom line: the S&P ended above 2800/2811/2815.   A close there today opens the way for a challenge of their all-time highs and, perhaps, the upper boundaries of the long term uptrends.

TLT and GLD are pointing at a weak economy/easy Fed, the latter likely being the reason equity investors have been jiggy.  However, the price action in the dollar doesn’t exactly fit the weak economy/easy Fed scenario, unless it is being viewed as a safety trade.  So, I am a bit confused about the messages being sent by our indicators.


                       Monday in the charts.

                   


    Fundamental

       Headlines

            One minor stat was reported yesterday: the March housing market index was in line with estimates. 

Overseas, January Japanese industrial production fell but slightly less than anticipated; however, capacity utilization was abysmal.  The January EU trade balance was much better than expected.

            The FOMC meets this week and will likely be the news highlight.  Given the recent Fed ‘patience’ narrative, it would be surprising for the statement following the meeting to be otherwise. 
      
            Bill Dudley comments.

            The Fed needs to buy some recession insurance.

How useful is the Fed’s dot plot?

The Fed can’t fix credit exhaustion.

Bottom line: the bad news is that the uncertainties regarding US/China trade and Brexit escalated Sunday and Monday.  The good news is that the Fed is expected to remain dovish and the S&P hasn’t hesitated after blowing through the 2800 resistance level.  It appears that the good news wins.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
           
Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            The March housing market index came in at 62, in line.

     International

            January EU construction output declined 0.7% versus estimates of a 2.1% increase.

            March EU economic sentiment index was reported at -2.5 versus forecasts of -18.7.

    Other

            Is government debt really equity?

            UK Commons Speaker rejects May’s latest Brexit vote.

What I am reading today

            Why are boomers so broke?

            Valuation determines return (must read).

            Seven retirement planning mistakes to avoid.

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