Wednesday, March 13, 2019

The Morning Call---Back to S&P 2800


The Morning Call

3/13/19

The Market
         
    Technical

The Averages (DJIA 25554, S&P 2791) had a mixed performance yesterday (Dow down---largely as a result of the ongoing problem with Boeing---,S&P up).  I am now watching the trading range defined by S&P 2800 (upper boundary) and its 200 DMA (lower boundary).

Volume was flat; breadth remained mixed.

The VIX declined 3 ½ %, ending within a trading range marked by its 200 DMA (upper boundary) and the late February/early March double bottom (lower boundary).

The long bond was up ¾ %, finishing just below a triple top and in a trading range bounded by that top and a double bottom at a support level.

The dollar dropped five cents, but still finished above the upper boundary of the November to present trading range and set a very short term uptrend.  Importantly, in doing so, it closed last Thursday’s gap open.

GLD rose 5/8%, continuing its rebound off a minor support level (now a double bottom) and above both MA’s.

Bottom line: the S&P as well as the VIX, TLT and GLD are now caught between strong support and resistance levels.  That suggests to me that there will be sideways trading across these markets over the near term.  Meanwhile, the dollar is in a solid uptrend off its January 2018 low; so, currency investors appear less uncertain.

            The bull market actually isn’t ten years old.

            Tuesday in the charts.

    Fundamental

       Headlines

            Yesterday’s stats weighed to the downside: the February small business optimism index and month to date retail chain store sales were disappointing while February CPI was in line; but ex food and energy, it was slightly below estimates.  Nothing overseas.
      
            Bottom line: it was a very slow day for economic or any other development.  I have nothing to add to prior comments.

            Latest on US/China trade negotiations.

More on first quarter economic growth.  I hope that the analyst will be as diligent in pointing out the flaws in forecasts of democratic administrations.

            Latest from Jeff Gundlach.
           
            Latest from Jeremy Grantham.

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
 
Economics

   This Week’s Data

      US

            Month to date retail chain store sales continued to slow.

            Weekly mortgage applications rose 2.3% while purchase applications were up 4.0%.

            January durable goods orders were +0.4% versus estimates of -0.5%; however, ex transportation, they were -0.1% versus forecasts of +0.1%.

            February PPI increased 0.1% versus consensus of +0.2%.

     International
                 
                  January Japanese machinery orders fell 2.9% versus expectations of -2.3%.

                  February Japanese PPI was up 0.2% versus projections of up 0.1%.

                  January EU industrial production declined 1.1% versus estimates of down 2.1%.

    Other

            China scrambles to deal with $6 trillion in debt.

            Parliament rejects May’s latest Brexit deal.

What I am reading today

            The easy way to make kids smarter.

            The internal dialogue of plants.

            Finland government collapses over inability to fund universal healthcare.

            Quote of the day.
           
            What to do when you realize that you have made a mistake.

            A new map of dark matter spanning ten million galaxies.


Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.




No comments:

Post a Comment