The Morning Call
3/13/19
The
Market
Technical
The Averages
(DJIA 25554, S&P 2791) had a mixed performance yesterday (Dow down---largely
as a result of the ongoing problem with Boeing---,S&P up). I am now watching the trading range defined
by S&P 2800 (upper boundary) and its 200 DMA (lower boundary).
Volume was flat;
breadth remained mixed.
The VIX declined
3 ½ %, ending within a trading range marked by its 200 DMA (upper boundary) and
the late February/early March double bottom (lower boundary).
The long bond
was up ¾ %, finishing just below a triple top and in a trading range bounded by
that top and a double bottom at a support level.
The dollar dropped
five cents, but still finished above the upper boundary of the November to
present trading range and set a very short term uptrend. Importantly, in doing so, it closed last
Thursday’s gap open.
GLD rose 5/8%, continuing
its rebound off a minor support level (now a double bottom) and above both
MA’s.
Bottom line: the
S&P as well as the VIX, TLT and GLD are now caught between strong support
and resistance levels. That suggests to
me that there will be sideways trading across these markets over the near
term. Meanwhile, the dollar is in a
solid uptrend off its January 2018 low; so, currency investors appear less
uncertain.
The
bull market actually isn’t ten years old.
Tuesday
in the charts.
Fundamental
Headlines
Yesterday’s
stats weighed to the downside: the February small business optimism index and
month to date retail chain store sales were disappointing while February CPI was
in line; but ex food and energy, it was slightly below estimates. Nothing overseas.
Bottom
line: it was a very slow day for economic or any other development. I have nothing to add to prior comments.
Latest
on US/China trade negotiations.
More on first
quarter economic growth. I hope that the
analyst will be as diligent in pointing out the flaws in forecasts of democratic
administrations.
Latest
from Jeff Gundlach.
Latest
from Jeremy Grantham.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Economics
This Week’s Data
US
Month
to date retail chain store sales continued to slow.
Weekly
mortgage applications rose 2.3% while purchase applications were up 4.0%.
January
durable goods orders were +0.4% versus estimates of -0.5%; however, ex
transportation, they were -0.1% versus forecasts of +0.1%.
February
PPI increased 0.1% versus consensus of +0.2%.
International
January Japanese machinery
orders fell 2.9% versus expectations of -2.3%.
February Japanese PPI was up
0.2% versus projections of up 0.1%.
January EU industrial
production declined 1.1% versus estimates of down 2.1%.
Other
China
scrambles to deal with $6 trillion in debt.
Parliament
rejects May’s latest Brexit deal.
What
I am reading today
The
easy way to make kids smarter.
The
internal dialogue of plants.
Finland government collapses over
inability to fund universal healthcare.
Quote of the day.
What to do when you realize that you
have made a mistake.
A new map of dark matter spanning ten
million galaxies.
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