Saturday, March 30, 2019

The Closing Bell


The Closing Bell

3/30/19

Statistical Summary

   Current Economic Forecast
                       
2018 estimates (revised)

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                10-15%

            2019

Real Growth in Gross Domestic Product                          1.5-2.5%
                        Inflation                                                                          +1.5-2.5%
                        Corporate Profits                                                                5-6%


   Current Market Forecast
           
            Dow Jones Industrial Average

                                    Current Trend (revised):  
                                    Short Term Trading Range                      21691-26646
Intermediate Term Uptrend                     14233-30424
Long Term Uptrend                                  6585-29947
                                               
2018     Year End Fair Value                                   13800-14000

                        2019     Year End Fair Value                                   14500-14700

            Standard & Poor’s 500

                                    Current Trend (revised):
                                    Short Term Trading Range                          2349-2942
                                    Intermediate Term Uptrend                         1353-3163                                                          Long Term Uptrend                                     913-3191
                                                           
2018 Year End Fair Value                                       1700-1720         
                        2019 Year End Fair Value                                     1790-1810

Percentage Cash in Our Portfolios

Dividend Growth Portfolio                           56%
            High Yield Portfolio                                     55%
            Aggressive Growth Portfolio                        56%

Economics/Politics
           
The Trump economy is a neutral for equity valuations.   The data flow this week was negative: above estimates: weekly mortgage/purchase applications, February new home sales, weekly jobless claims, final March consumer sentiment, month to date retail chain store sales, the March Dallas and Kansas City Feds’ manufacturing indices, the January trade deficit, January PCE; below estimates: February housing starts and building permits, the January Case Shiller home price index, February pending home sales, January personal income, January personal spending, March consumer confidence, February Chicago Fed national activity index, March Chicago PMI,  the March Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Q4 2018 GDP growth, price deflator, corporate profits and trade deficit; in line with estimates: none.

The primary indicators were really negative:  February housing starts/building permits (-), Q4 GDP (-), January personal income (-), January personal spending (-). February new home sales (+).  I rate the week negative.  Score: in the last 181 weeks, fifty-eight positive, eighty-three negative and forty neutral.

Given the last month’s data, the earlier hope I had that the US economy could be stabilizing is fading fast.  Plus other developments seem to be pointing to a world that is either in or on the cusp of a recession: (1) deteriorating global stats, (2) falling bond yields and an ever flattening yield curve, (3) the sudden about face of Fed policy while it forecasts a sound economy and (4) even worse, the new push by the administration for a fifty basis point cut in the Fed Funds rate. 

For the moment, I am sticking with my assumption that the US can continue to grow albeit at a reduced rate even if there is a global recession.  However, the yellow light is now flashing.

The data from overseas this week was negative, though just slightly.  That could potentially change if there is a decent US/China trade deal; however, those prospects appear uncertain, the happy talk out of administration officials notwithstanding. Net, net, the global economy remains an impediment to our own economy’s struggle to sustain growth.

My forecast (for the moment):

Less government regulation, (hopefully) getting out of the Middle East quagmire and possible help from a fairer trade regime are pluses for the long-term US secular economic growth rate.

However, the explosion in deficit spending, exemplified by Trump’s new budget proposal, at a time when the government should be running a surplus, is a secular negative.  My thesis on this issue is that at the current high level of national debt, the cost of servicing the debt more than offsets (1) any stimulative benefit of tax cuts and (2) the secular positives of less government regulation and fairer trade [at least on the agreements that have been renegotiated].

On a cyclical basis, the economic growth rate is slowing as the effects of the tax cut wear off and the global economy decelerates.  However, even if the economy were to improve cyclically, it will still be unable to overcome the secular negative of too much debt to service.

       The negatives:

(1)   a vulnerable global banking [financial] system.
              
Problems in Germany.

(2) fiscal/regulatory policy. 

There were positive headlines on the US/China trade talks, though I don’t think that the happy talk out of Trump officials can be trusted.  Not that there won’t be a good outcome; I just don’t think that the Trump narrative has any informational value. 

In addition, I am becoming more convinced that even if we got a great trade deal today, it won’t prevent the global economy from rolling over.  Certainly, it could have a mitigating effect on the magnitude of any decline; and of course, long term, it would be a major plus for secular growth.  But as I said above, speculating of a US/China trade deal is a waste of time.

The other item was the White House campaign to talk the Fed Funds rate down.  Earlier in the week, Trump nominated Stephen Moore to a seat on the Fed.  He prompted began a series media interviews and editorials pushing for a fifty basis point cut in interest rates.  Then on Friday, Larry Kudlow went on TV espousing a similar action.

First of all, on its face, it is an absurdity to be advocating such a move while at the same time telling country how great the economy is.  Second and probably more important, it is a political statement not an economic one.  The universe knows that incumbents don’t do well in elections when the economy is in the tank: and, in my opinion, the more Trump pushes for lower rates, the more frightened he [and others in his administration] is that the economy is rolling over.

Bottom line: whatever the impact that might come from a US/China trade deal, irresponsible deficit spending will restrain US economic growth.

(2)   the potential negative impact of central bank money printing:  The key point here is that [a] the Fed has inflated bank reserves far beyond any comparable level in history and [b] while this hasn’t been an economic problem to date, {i} it still has to withdraw all those reserves from the system without creating any disruptions---a task that I regularly point out it has proven inept at in the past and {ii} it has created  asset bubbles in the stock market as well as in the auto, student and mortgage loan markets.  

While there was little news this week, the headlines were still dominated by the debate on the logic behind the Fed’s dovish turn---the major issues being the strength of the US/global economy and efficacy of an easier monetary policy.  In addition, there was a discussion of how much weight to give the current rise in bond prices and the flattening of the yield curve.

But you know all that because I have been addressing those issues in almost all the Morning Calls this week.  So, I will just repeat my conclusions.

[a] the 180 degree turn in policy in the last three months {i} demonstrates the extent to which the Fed has been kidding itself/you/me about the strength of the economy and {ii} clearly supports my long term thesis that the Fed has never in its history managed a successful transition from easy to normal monetary policy,

[b] easy money will do little to improve economic growth but, if history is any guide, will keep investors buying every asset in sight.

I believe that the Fed has finally painted itself into a box from which there is no easy exit: [a] if inflation accelerates, the Fed will ultimately be compelled to tightening policy irrespective of Market reaction or [b] if economic growth continues to decelerate, any additional QE will prove ineffective in halting the slowdown; and Markets don’t like recessions.  (must read):

(3)   geopolitical risks: 

Europe is a mess with Brexit [which now has a very short shelf life], riots in France and fiscal policy discord in Italy; and it continues to be reflected in a negative way in the economic stats.

You never know how the situations in Venezuela and Israel play out.

(4)   economic difficulties around the globe.  The stats this week were just slightly negative, but continued to point to a global economic slowdown or worse:  

[a] February German retail sales were in line and the March German business climate index was better than expected; Q4 UK business investment fell less than expected while GDP was in line; the Q4 EU business confidence index, the industrial sentiment index and the economic sentiment indicator were below consensus while the consumer confidence index was in line,

Permanent recession in Italy (must read):

[b] January/February Chinese industrial profits declined.
   
[c] the January Japanese all activity index was below estimates; the February unemployment rate, industrial production, construction orders and housing starts were better than anticipated while retail sales disappointed.

            Bottom line:  on a secular basis, the US economy is growing at an historically below average rate.  Although some recent policy changes are a plus for secular growth, they are being offset by totally irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies. 
          
Cyclically, the US economy is slowing as evidenced by the data from both here and abroad.  Further, the reversal of Fed policy and plunge in interest rates put an exclamation point of that notion.

          Finally, any move to a more dovish stance by the Fed is not likely to have an impact, cyclical or secular, on the economy.  QE II, III, and Operation Twist didn’t, and QE IV probably won’t either.   Meaning that if the Fed thinks backing off QT or lowering the Fed Funds rate will help support economic growth, in my opinion, it will be disappointed.

The Market-Disciplined Investing
           
  Technical

The Averages (DJIA 25928, S&P 2834) had another great day, with the S&P closing above 2800/2811/2815 level.  Clearly, it is making another attempt to break free of this level’s the gravitational pull.  However, given (1) all the back and forth around 2800/2811/2815 since last October (2) plus the fact that Friday was the last trading day of the quarter and institutions were marking up their portfolios for performance purposes, I am not totally convinced that this latest move has a clear path to the S&P’s all-time high.  Also holding me back is that the Dow remains in a very short term downtrend and the pin action in the dollar and the long bond are negatives.  Follow through.

Volume rose and breadth improved.

The VIX declined 10 3/8 %, finishing in the lower zone of the trading range marked by the 200 DMA on the upside and the double bottom on the downside---whose violation would be a plus for stocks.

The long bond was down slightly on volume.  The good news is that it is maintaining its upward momentum and move toward its all-time high.  The bad news is that last Friday’s gap up open still needs to be closed.
               
The dollar rose. The good news is that it remains above the upper boundary of the November to present trading range (a move above its prior high would put this trading range in the dust bin), above both MA’s and in a short term uptrend.  The bad news is that it gapped up on Wednesday’s open.

GLD recovered a little of its big Thursday selloff---which was the first really negative development in some time.  The good news is that it is in a solid uptrend and yesterday was a gap down open.  The bad news is that it is nearing a former minor double bottom and is developing a head and shoulders pattern.

Bottom line: certainly on a price basis, Friday’s pin action enhances the probability of the S&P moving higher versus the odds of a failure to sustain the 2800/2811/2815 level.  However, many other indicators suggest otherwise. So, I await follow through.
                              

TLT and UUP continue to point to lower interest rates/a weaker economy.  GLD is taking a hit from the strong dollar.
           
                Friday in the charts.

Fundamental-A Dividend Growth Investment Strategy

The DJIA and the S&P are well above ‘Fair Value’ (as calculated by our Valuation Model), the improved regulatory environment and the potential pluses from trade notwithstanding.  At the moment, the important factors bearing on Fair Value (corporate profitability and the rate at which it is discounted) are:

(1)   the extent to which the economy is growing---which the trend in the dataflow suggests is meager.  Plus the stampede by the central banks to ease along with the pin action in the global bond markets, the dollar and gold are confirming further economic weakness, perhaps, even recession.  That is not my call, at the moment; but it is subject to change.

In short, the economy is not a negative [yet] but it is not a positive at current valuation levels.
           
(2)   the success of current trade negotiations.  If Trump is able to create a fairer political/trade regime, it would almost surely be a plus for secular earnings growth.  While there was more happy talk this week on the US/China trade negotiations, unfortunately, the entire narrative on this issue has been so muddied by the obvious political/Market oriented nature of the administration’s comments that I, for one, have no idea about the true state of the current trade talks with China. 

As you know, I have been somewhat skeptical that a comprehensive agreement on Chinese industrial policy and IP theft could be reached in the short term.   

My concern is not that we get no deal or a small deal but that the Chinese out maneuver Trump and he gives away the need for progress on industrial policy and IP theft just to get a deal.

(3)   the resumption of QE by the global central banks.  If QEII, QEIII and Operation Twist are any guide, the latest Fed move should be a big plus for the Markets, at least in the short term.

(4)   current valuations. the Averages have recouped much of their October to December loss and appear on their way to regaining even more.  Since they were grossly overvalued [as determined by my Valuation Model] in October, they are now just slightly less grossly overvalued.  That said, if the latest central bank liquidity surge continues, valuations will remain irrelevant.

As prices continue to rise, I will again be focusing on those stocks that trade into their Sell Half Range and act accordingly.

Bottom line: fiscal policy is negatively impacting the E in P/E, although a new regulatory environment is a plus.  Any improvement in our trade regime with China should have a positive impact on secular growth and, hence, equity valuations---if it occurs.  More important, a global central bank ‘put’ has returned and, if history is any guide, will almost assuredly be a plus for stock prices. 

            As a reminder, my Portfolio’s cash position didn’t reach its current level as a result of the Valuation Models estimate of Fair Value for the Averages.  Rather I apply it to each stock in my Portfolio and when a stock reaches its Sell Half Range (overvalued), I reduce the size of that holding.  That forces me to recognize a portion of the profit of a successful investment and, just as important, build a reserve to buy stocks cheaply when the inevitable decline occurs.

DJIA             S&P

Current 2019 Year End Fair Value*              14600             1800
Fair Value as of 3/31/19                                 14074            1731
Close this week                                               25928            2834

* Just a reminder that the Year End Fair Value number is based on the long term secular growth of the earning power of productive capacity of the US economy not the near term   cyclical influences.  The model is now accounting for somewhat below average secular growth for the next 3 to 5 years. 

The Portfolios and Buy Lists are up to date.








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