Thursday, March 20, 2014

Teva Pharmaceutical Ind (TEVA) 2014 Review

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries is an Israeli based global pharmaceutical company that develops, manufactures and markets generic and proprietary branded drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients.  The company has grown profits and dividends at a 25%+ rate over the last ten years earning a 14-20% return on equity.  The company was little impacted by the recent recession and should continue to expand as a result of:

(1) plentiful growth opportunities in generic drugs.  The company currently has 83 product applications pending before the FDA,

(2) a significant and growing branded pharmaceutical business,

(3) the company has a very successful at resolving patent challenges which is a key part of generic product selections and development strategy,

(4) acquisitions,

(5) significant cost reduction program.

 Negatives:

(1) the pharmaceutical industry is very competitive and the generic segment is highly crowded,

(2) gaining approval for drugs is becoming more difficult in an increasingly tough regulatory environment,

(3) weak sales in the EU.

TEVA is rated A by Value Line, has a 31% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 3.3%.

 Statistical Summary

                 Stock        Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
                 Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio        Since 2004

TEVA        3.3%          11%               28%              10
Ind Ave      3.0              5*                 48                NA 

                  Debt/                       EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                 Equity         ROE      Since 2004     Margin       Rating

TEVA        31%           15%            1                 20             A
Ind Ave      37              20              NA              16            NA

*many companies in TEVA industry do not pay a dividend
 
     Chart

            Note: TEVA stock made good initial progress off its October 2008 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its February 2008 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  However, it remained in a long term trading range (blue lines).  It is in an intermediate term uptrend (purple lines) and a short term uptrend (brown line).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.  The Aggressive Growth Portfolio owns a 75% position in TEVA.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $36; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $85.
   



3/14

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