Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

3/17/14

The Market

           

    Technical

      Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P remains in uptrends across all timeframes: short (1777-1954), intermediate (1732-2532) and long (739-1910); and so far, there is no danger of breaking any of those trends.  Nevertheless, divergences continue to multiply.

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Chris-Puplava-140315-Market-Update.php

                http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Nyaradi-140316-Dow-Breaks-Key-Level.php

  

                The long Treasury had a good week, benefitting mightily from the flight to safety.  Note that it is at the upper boundary of its very short term and short term trading ranges.  The bad news is that this could potentially be a triple top.  The good news is that this latest advance was on good volume and the on balance volume indicator (wiggly blue line) has been strong.

            Gold had another great week.  It finished within a very short term uptrend.  On Friday, it broke above the upper boundary of its short term downtrend (on our time and distance discipline, it must remain above the trend line through the close on Tuesday to confirm the break) but remains within an intermediate term downtrend.

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-14/citi-golds-breakout-week

            As you might expect in a volatile week, the VIX shot up; but it remains well entrenched in that short term trading range and intermediate term downtrend.

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-16/bofa-warns-vix-spells-trouble

    Fundamental

    

            Distorted markets (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-14/distorted-markets-disillusionment-one-asset-time

       News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The New York Fed’s March manufacturing index came in at 5.6 versus expectations of 6.5.

   Other\

            Abenomics already starting to fail (short):

            http://blog.yardeni.com/

Politics

  Domestic

  International

            The latest from Ukraine:

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-14/russians-have-already-quietly-pulled-their-money-west

                http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-14/russia-us-remain-odds-over-ukraine-sanctions-counterproductive-and-tanks-are-coming

                        http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-17/crimea-names-ruble-currency-applies-join-russia-expects-become-region-russian-federa

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.