Monday, March 3, 2014

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

3/3/14
The Market
           
    Technical

     Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P is in the midst of the time and distance discipline confirmation of the break above its all time high (and upper boundary of its short term trading range).  If it remains above 1848 through the close on Wednesday, the short term trend will re-set from a trading range to an uptrend.  Assuming that occurs, the DJIA still remains within its short term trading range which would leave the Averages out of sync and leave the Market trendless.  If we make a best case assumption, i.e. that the Dow will follow suit on the upside, then the next price objective (resistance level) would be the upper boundaries of the long term uptrends (17400, 1910).



            The long Treasury invalidated a head and shoulders formation last week.  It now trades in a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.


            This week, GLD hit its first rough spot in some time, though nothing that I would characterize a major sell off or a test of its very short term uptrend.  It also remains within short and intermediate term downtrends.  I still want to see a failed challenge of that very short term uptrend before I am comfortable betting against the two downtrends.



            The VIX sold off last week, closing below its 50 day moving average.  It continues to trade within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend.



            March performance after down January and up February (short):

            Update on margin debt (short):

            Update on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’:
           
    Fundamental
    
            Have investors learned anything? (medium):

     News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

o    Nu Skin Enterprises Inc. (NUS): Q4 EPS of $2.02 beats by $0.05.
o    Revenue of $1.05B (+78.5% Y/Y) misses by $20M.
·         South Jersey Industries Inc. (SJI): Q4 EPS of $1.23 misses by $0.02.
·         Revenue of $224.3M (+13.6% Y/Y)
Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            Yardini on the labor force participation rate (short):
            http://blog.yardeni.com/

            China’s economic slowdown (medium):

Politics

  Domestic

Ann Coulter on the minimum wage (medium):

More disastrous consequences from Obamacare (this is long but a good expose on what will likely prove a major problem):

  International

            Memo to Obama from David Stockman (medium):












Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.

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