Tuesday, March 25, 2014

AT&T (T) 2014 Review

AT&T is one of the world’s largest telecommunications companies.  The company has grown its dividend at a 5% pace over the past ten years (profits have been flat) earning approximately 10-12% return on equity.  T went through a rough period (2008-2011) as the growth of its traditional wireline business slowed and margins came under pressure.  Looking forward profits should regain momentum as a result of:

(1)    momentum in wireless businesses,

(2)          building the most technologically advanced digital networks systems in the industry.  It will include voice, video and internet in a vast wireline (U-verse) and wireless infrastructure and has resulted in increased penetration of both the business and household markets,

(3)          acquisitions,

(4)          share repurchases.
 Negatives:

(1)  intense competition,

(2) losses in wireline business,

(3) highly regulated industry.

T is rated A++ by Value Line, carries a 40% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 5.3%.

  Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
               Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio        Since 2004

T                5.3%           4%               68               10
Ind Ave      3.6              6*                62              NA 

                Debt/                        EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                Equity         ROE      Since 2004      Margin       Rating

T               40%            15%             3                11%           A++
Ind Ave     45               12              NA               7              NA

*many companies in T industry do not pay a dividend

     Chart

            Note: T stock made good progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its May 2008 high (straight red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term, the stock is in an uptrend (blue lines).  Intermediate term, it is an uptrend (purple lines).  Short term it is in a trading range (brown line).  The wiggly red line is the 50 day moving average.   The High Yield Portfolio owns a 75% position in T.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $31; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $45.

   

3/14

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