Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

3/10/14

The Market

           

    Technical

     Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P closed for the fourth day above the upper boundary of its short term trading range (all-time high).  If it finishes over 1848 today, the short term trend will re-set to up.  That will put it in uptrends across all timeframes and above its 50 day moving average.  However, it remains out of sync with the Dow.

            The long Treasury broke a very short term uptrend last week, perhaps in anticipation of higher rates/inflation.  It is too early to tell; but it needs to be watched.  It remained within a short term trading range and an intermediate term downtrend and above its 50 day moving average.

            GLD continues to trade well over the lower boundary of the very short term uptrend and its 50 day moving average; however, it also remains within a short and intermediate term downtrend.  I am still waiting for a meaningful test of the very short term uptrend before considering re-establishing this holding.

            VIX closed within a very long short term trading range which is providing no help directionally.

            2007 and today (short):

            http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2014/03/06/the-2007-top-vs-today/

            Update on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’:

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php

    Fundamental

    

      Investing for Survival

            http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-remember-how-you-felt-five-years-ago-2014-03-07

       News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            Deflation is not a danger (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-07/no-deflation-not-danger

            Why 2% inflation is a problem (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-07/no-inflation-friday-dollar-has-lost-833-against

            The aftermath of the Chinese default (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-09/celebrating-chinas-first-bond-default-copper-limit-down-yuan-crashes-most-six-years

            It appears that the Japanese are now learning that QEInfinity (Abenomics) is of no help (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-09/abenomics-crucified-lowest-gdp-abe-worst-current-account-deficit-record

            Thoughts on ‘forward guidance’ (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-09/fallacy-forward-guidance-4-charts

            An end to austerity? (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-09/end-austerity

Politics

  Domestic

  International

            Obama’s Russian denial policy (medium):

            http://www.nationalreview.com/article/372652/obama-denial-russia-jonah-goldberg

                And:

            http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/charles-krauthammer-obamas-inaction-enables-putins-grab-for-ukraine/2014/03/06/c4222690-a55f-11e3-84d4-e59b1709222c_story.html

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Investing For Survival is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.