Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

4/1/13

The Market

           

    Technical

     Monday Morning Chartology

The S&P remains in its short and intermediate term uptrends but has yet to challenge its former all time high (1576) (the purple line).

           

            GLD remains solidly within its short term downtrend.  However, the developing support level continues in place.

  

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-31/guest-post-preparing-inflationary-times

            The VIX continues to trade well within its short and intermediate term downtrends.

            Over the weekend, I played around with our internal indicator and found something interesting.  First, when our stocks are run against their all time highs: in a 144 stock Universe, 101 are above those highs, 26 are not and 17 are too close to call.  So they continue to tell us that our Universe has broken out to the upside.

            However, when I run a study comparing our stocks to their highs of the last three months: 56 are above those highs, 67 are not and 21 are too close to calls.  In other words, our Universe appears to have lost momentum and is starting to roll over.

           

            Another bullish technical indicator (short):

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Dominic-Cimino-130327-Russell-2000-Update.php

            Update on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’ (short):

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php

    Fundamental

           

            Leading expert on sovereign debt restructuring on Cyprus and what is next (10 minute video---must watch):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-28/buchheit-cyprus-situation-spiralling-down

            Why the Cyprus template helps get rid of too big to fail (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-28/guest-post-cyprus-deal-and-unraveling-fractional-reserve-banking

            The Cyprus bailout from a somewhat different perspective (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-31/guest-post-how-big-bailout-cyprus-hint-trick-question

            Cyprus, who knew? (short):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-28/so-who-knew-february-cyprus-deposit-outflows-soared-three-year-high

            Russia launches large naval operation in Black Sea (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-28/russia-launches-surprise-large-scale-36-warship-military-exercise-black-sea

            More on valuation (medium):

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Chris-Turner-130327-Fair-Value.php

            And:

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Chris-Kimble-130327-Low-Cash-Levels-High-Margin-Debt.php

            Morgan Stanley on the not so record profits (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-28/about-those-not-so-record-profits

            Another blow to the dollar’s reserve currency status (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-31/thanks-world-reserve-currency-no-thanks-australia-and-china-enable-direct-currency-c

     Investing for Survival

            The argument for physical delivery:

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-27/physical-gold-you-thought-you-owned-you-didnt

      News on Stocks in Our Portfolios courtesy of Seeking Alpha

Accenture (ACN): FQ2 EPS of $1.00 beats by $0.03. Revenue of $7.1B beats by $0.03B.

Paychex (PAYX): FQ3 EPS of $0.4 beats by $0.01. Revenue of $593.3M beats by $0.7M

Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

            Update on inflation (medium):

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/CPI-PCE-Comparison.php

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at Strategic Stock Investments is to help other investors build wealth and benefit from the investing lessons he learned the hard way.