Tuesday, April 2, 2013

ATT (T) 2013 Review


AT&T is one of the world’s largest telecommunications companies.  The company has grown profits and dividends at a 5% pace over the past five years earning approximately 10-12% return on equity.  T went through a rough period (2008-2011) as the growth of its traditional wireline business slowed and margins came under pressure.  Looking forward profits should regain momentum as a result of:

(1)    momentum in both is wireline and wireless businesses,

(2)          building the most technologically advanced digital networks systems in the industry.  It will include voice, video and internet in a vast wireline (U-verse) and wireless infrastructure and has resulted in increased penetration of both the business and household markets,

(3)          acquisitions,

 Negatives:

(1)  intense competition,

(2) growth in voice over IP,

(3) highly regulated industry,

(4) loss of its exclusive hold on iPhone.

T is rated A++ by Value Line, carries a 33% debt to equity ratio and its stock yields 5.3%.

  Statistical Summary

                 Stock      Dividend         Payout      # Increases  
               Yield      Growth Rate     Ratio        Since 2003

T               5.3%           3%               69               9
Ind Ave      4.6              5*                58              NA 

                Debt/                        EPS Down       Net        Value Line
                Equity         ROE      Since 2003      Margin       Rating

T              33%            14%            4                11%           A++
Ind Ave     46               11              NA              6              NA

*many companies in T industry do not pay a dividend

     Chart

            Note: T stock made good progress off its March 2009 low, quickly surpassing the downtrend off its May 2008 high (red line) and the November 2008 trading high (green line).  Long term, T is in an uptrend (straight blue lines).  Intermediate term, it is in an uptrend (purple lines).  Short term, it is in an uptrend (brown lines).  The wiggly blue line is on balance volume.  The High Yield Portfolio owns a full position in T.  The upper boundary of its Buy Value Range is $28; the lower boundary of its Sell Half Range is $45.





4/13

No comments:

Post a Comment