Monday Morning Chartology-4/15/13

The Morning Call

4/15/13

The Market

           

    Technical

     Monday Morning Chartology

            The S&P closed above 1576 for the second day on Friday.  It is well within all major uptrends.  The direction is up, until it isn’t.

 

            GLD has gone from sick to critical.  As this is being written, it is down $90 plus.  Note the lower boundary of its long term uptrend is at roughly 126.80.  It seems inevitable that GLD will challenge that number.  If it holds, our Portfolios will likely be Buyers.

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-15/which-countrys-gold-will-be-sold-next

            The VIX continues to meander around---not really showing as much conviction as I would have thought right after a major break to the upside.  But it remains within its short and intermediate term downtrends.

            Update on ‘the best stock market indicator ever’:

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/John-Carlucci-Best-Indicator-Ever-Update.php

    Fundamental

    

            Overnight, China reported disappointing first quarter numbers.

            http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/15/us-china-economy-gdp-idUSBRE93E01U20130415

                Ex-Soros advisor sees Japanese crash (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-14/ex-soros-advisor-sells-almost-all-japan-holdings-shorts-bonds-sees-market-crash-defa

                The latest from Morgan Stanley (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-14/priced-perfection-return-normal-wont-be-enough

                A wealth tax is coming (medium):

            http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-14/germanys-five-wise-men-confirm-wealth-tax-coming

                More on market valuation (medium/long but a must read):

            http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/BP-130412-Valuation-Based-Forecasts.php

               

           News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Economics

   This Week’s Data

            The April New York Fed manufacturing index came in at 3.05 versus expectations of 7.5.

   Other

Politics

  Domestic

  International War Against Radical Islam

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at