Tuesday, April 30, 2013

The Morning Call---Appropriately enough, it is Kentucky Derby week


The Morning Call

4/30/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            The indices (DJIA 14818, S&P 1593) had another great day, finishing within all major uptrends: short term (14220-14902, 1557-1651), intermediate term (13804-18804, 1463-2057) and long term (4783-17500, 688-1750).  In addition, the S&P confirmed its break above its former all time high and moved back in sync with the Dow.

            Volume was abysmal (continuing the unhealthy pattern of up prices on down volume); breadth improved.  The VIX rose fractionally, remaining within its short and intermediate term downtrends.

            GLD was up again, closing within its intermediate term downtrend and its long term uptrend.  However, it is still below the lower boundary of its short term downtrend.

Bottom line:  with yesterday’s close, all signs are ‘go’ with respect to another leg to the upside.  As you know, my best guess (which admittedly hasn’t been worth much lately) is that the upper boundaries of the Averages long term uptrends are a solid barrier.  Certainly, with the trend up, that boundary is going to advance over time.  But at some point, the downside risk has to enter into investor’s risk/reward analysis. 

    Fundamental
    
     Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic news was mixed to negative: March personal income was below expectations though spending came in better than estimates; the Dallas Fed April manufacturing index was terrible.  While disappointing viz a viz our forecast, nobody else in stock land cared.

            Investors were focused on the potential easing by the ECB this week and the formation of a new government in Italy.  Plus the Market’s drive to the hoop is itself increasing becoming the story driving the Market.

Bottom line: ‘central bank monetary expansion seems to be the fuel propelling stock prices higher because I sure can’t justify them on fundamentals.  Being a lousy trader, I am not good at rationalizing prices that are too far divorced from my version of reality.  It is particularly difficult this time around because of the extremes to which the central banks have taken monetary policy and the lack of any sound explanation of how they are going to unwind these measures without causing severe disruptions.

Until someone can ‘splain’ to me a reasonable end game, I am content to under perform as a price to avoid disaster.’
           
As I have noted endlessly, I am not a trader and do not trade for my own account.  However, for those of you who do trade and want to participate in whatever is left of the up market, I would be looking at underperforming sectors, commodities being the prime example.  After all, if the global economy is going to the moon, commodities should do better.  Two to look at are the Powershares Commodity  ETF (DBC) and Gabelli’s Gamco Natural Resource Gold and Income Trust (GNT).

Another underperforming area is emerging market stocks: Vanguard Emerging Market ETF (VWO), Wisdom Tree High Yield Emerging Market ETF (DEM), S&P Emerging Market Dividend ETF (EDIV).

Tight stops are absolutely essential. 

At some point risk is going to kick in and Ranger Equity Bear ETF (HDGE) might be considered.

            The latest from John Hussman (medium):

            The return of the housing bubble (short but a must read):

            The latest move by the Bundesbank (medium):

            Is a EU QE coming (short/medium)?

            The bank with the largest derivative exposure (medium):

            Italy may have a new government but it still has the same old problems (medium):

            ***overnight EU unemployment rate ticked up again.

            Yesterday, I responded to an article that excused the Fed from a raft of sins.  This article entails considerably more economic expertise than my own.  A must read (medium)

            Inflation and the Fed (short):
            http://blog.yardeni.com/

      Investing for Survival

            Wall Street is out of control (short):
            http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/04/28/absolutely-out-of-control/



Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at

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