Thursday, April 11, 2013

Yesterday was too busy not to comment


The Morning Call

4/11/13

The Market
           
    Technical

            Too much happened yesterday to not comment.  Perhaps the biggest thing was the technical picture.  The indices (DJIA 14802, S&P 1587) had another great day. The Dow once again closed above the upper boundary of its short term uptrend (13986-14681) though the S&P did not (1528-1602).  However, given the powerful surge that distinction is a minor detail.  Both finished within both their intermediate term uptrends ( 13703-18703, 1449-2043) and their long term uptrends (4783-17500, 688-1750).

            Most important, the S&P blew through its former all time high (1576)---and not in a minor way---joining the DJIA.  Our time and distance discipline kicks in at this point, which means that to confirm the break the S&P must either (1) on a time basis, remain above 1576 until the close next Tuesday or (2) on a distance basis, close above 1599.

            If the break is confirmed, then the next most important level to watch is the upper boundaries of the Averages long term uptrends (17500, 1750).

    Fundamental
    
            The least important item was Obama’s submission of His budget.  It was pretty much as expected---more taxes but no tax reform, a reduction in the rate of spending increase but no reduction in the deficit (why is that no surprise) and no attempt at a grand bargain.  To be fair, it does have some cuts in entitlement spending---though not much.  That said, I noted yesterday that the senate and house have already passed their own budget; so I am not that sure that Obama’s version is of much consequence beyond its PR value.  And as I recall the budget process is the constitutional responsibility of congress anyway.  Hence, the real budget news will occur when the joint committee starts the resolution process.

            The Fed released the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting.  They remained dovish in tone; and that provided the fuel for yesterday’s rocket shot.  Nonetheless, there were still some members that indicated that some sort of end game to QEinfinity was appropriate.  This is line with the comments of some Board members over the last two weeks (which I reviewed this issue in yesterday’s Morning Call).  However, judging from latest statement, I would say that (unfortunately) these individual comments were just that---individual comments; and not a sign that monetary restraint is within sight.  That leaves me with my oft stated conclusion.  QEinfinity is not going to end pretty; and the longer it takes, the uglier that end will be.

            The EU finance ministers are debating including interbank deposits in the Cyprus non-template.  If passed this clearly won’t help depositor confidence.  (medium):

                ***and this overnight:

            Cypriot parliamentary committee investigating who got money out of the country before the bail in/capital controls were imposed has suspended said investigation.  Also unlikely to enhance citizen/depositor confidence (medium):

            Bottom line: clearly I am a short hair from being wrong regarding another leg up in stock prices.  That said, no matter which bull gets quoted, he/she always ends their argument for higher stock prices with the ‘you can’t fight the Fed’.  That is certainly the case today.  However, things have a way of never being quite that simple; otherwise, we would all be billionaires.  The risks in this tidy little adage are two fold; (1) it will work until it doesn’t, then all hell breaks loose or (2) it does work until the Fed starts to tighten; in which case, if you are not the first out the door, you are f**ked---and there is only one first out the door.

The majority of the rest of their bull cases rest on (1) valuation based on forward looking earnings, which I have shown is not the best valuation method, (2) an improving economy, which I have no fight with; but that improvement is not that spectacular, (3) the US is the prettiest girl at a convention of fat, ugly women; I am sorry but you wouldn’t marry the prettiest girl from a convention of fat ugly women, so why would you buy the least bad Market?

For traders, I can see buying in to the ‘don’t fight the Fed’ notion and riding the bull till it is exhausted.  I am just not a trader; so I stay with the risk/reward argument I have made in the past---from current price levels to the upper boundary of its long term uptrend, the S&P has 10% upside (1588 to 1750) but from current levels to our Fair Value, it has 11% to the downside (1587 to 1412)---an OK but not great bet.  However, from current levels to the lower boundary of the long term uptrend, the downside is 56%.  That is not a great risk/reward equation; so I will grit my teeth and suffer through any additional move to the upside.

However, if I were a trader and if the Market break is confirmed, I would buy a Market ETF (e.g. VIG) and keep a very tight stop.

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