Wednesday, April 10, 2013

The Morning Call--Are tail risks diminishing?


The Morning Call

4/10/13

Reminder: I am heading for Augusta.  See you Monday

The Market
           
    Technical

The indices (DJIA 14673, S&P 1568) had good day, closing within all major uptrends: short term (13986-14681, 1527-1601), intermediate term (13679-18679, 1448-2042) and long term  (4783-17500, 688-1750). Nevertheless, they remain out of sync on surmounting their all time highs---the Dow having done so (14190), the S&P not (1576). 

            Volume rose; breadth was mixed.  The VIX declined, finishing within both its short and intermediate term downtrends.

            GLD was up again.  It remains well within its short term downtrend.  However, the strength of the recent rise coupled with the fact that it only traded below the developing support level for two days, convinces me that this support level is in tact.

Bottom line: ‘stocks prices remain in an uptrend.  The question is, is that coming to an end?  Given that all uptrends remain in tact, why would there even be a question?   Market internals are weakening, the S&P hasn’t even challenged its former all time high and the upward momentum in the DJIA is slowing.  So there are some telltale signs of a topping process.

That said, this will remain a hypothetical until the aforementioned uptrends start breaking down.  I stay cautious with emphasis on the sell side’.

            Chart porn for you viewing pleasure:

            Update on Dr. Copper:

            Update on margin debt:

    Fundamental

     Headlines

            Yesterday’s economic numbers were positive: weekly retail sales were up; and while February wholesale inventories shrank, sales were quite strong suggesting future inventory build.  From overseas, China reported a much lower CPI increase than anticipated---leading to investor hope of government stimulus.  These two factors got the Market off on the right foot and that carried through the day.  Both fit our forecast nicely.

            ***over night Japan says its easing is over (short):

            The other item that is generating increasing attention among investors is one that I first mentioned last week and then again in yesterday’s Morning Call; and that is the likelihood of the Fed starting a move to less ease.  The first mention was prompted by a speech from the San Francisco Fed head about which you may recall I wondered out loud if it was some sort of trial balloon.  You may also remember that I blew off as the self indulgent mumblings of the power elite.  However, since then several other FOMC members seem to have joined the discussion.  

Whether or not this leads to action is anyone’s guess.  If it does, then I repeat two of my oft repeated refrains; (1) the sooner it starts the less pain that the US economy will have to endure in the withdrawal process but (2) the withdrawal process will nonetheless likely be painful because history tells us that the Fed has never transitioned from easy to tight money without pain.

Finally, today Obama introduces His budget (three months late).  While that will undoubtedly capture some headlines, bear in mind that the house and senate have already passed their own versions; and if I remember the budget resolution process (its been four years after all) correctly, a joint committee should be working on a compromise soon, suggesting the Obama’s budget is mostly PR fluff.

Bottom line: I have been pissing and moaning about irresponsible central bank money printing and the lack of progress in solving EU sovereign/bank insolvencies forever---my concern being the pain that the resolution of these problems could have on our economy. 

I linked to an article yesterday on the latter issue whose main thesis was that the austerity that has been imposed on Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Greece et al is having the effect of improving the debt management of these countries and their banks and by extension their ability to survive any future crisis.

As I noted above, over the last week the Fed seems to be testing the water on at least trying slow down the printing presses.

The point here is not that there won’t be another crisis in Europe (Italy, France, Slovenia)---if indeed the above quoted thesis is correct--or that there won’t be pain if the Fed starts to tighten soon.  The point is that the tail risks for these factors may  (please, this is the operative word at the moment) be lessening. 

It is too soon to tell.  So to be clear, I am not altering my forecast.  Nor am I changing my position on the aforementioned tail risks.  I simply alerting you that there are potential changes that could impact the magnitude of the tail risks I have associated with Fed policy and EU insolvencies and that we need to be cognizant of those factors and watch them closely. 

Looking at the end game IF it turns out the conditions are changing (1) stocks are still overvalued, even if we didn’t have to worry about the risks of an irresponsible Fed or inept eurocrats, (2) as I noted in the discussion on Fed policy, there is still pain that must be endured as free markets correct excesses, (3) it is highly unlikely that I have all the pain factored into our Models but (4) the unquantifiable downside to both Fed policy and the euro-malfeasance may be less than I feared, (5) meaning that IF we get more evidence of improvement in EU government finances and IF the Fed starts its policy transition sooner rather than later, our Portfolios’ cash positions would become less elevated from normal than they have been in the past year.

            In the meantime, I remain quite happy with those cash positions.
    
            The latest from Jeffrey Gundlach (medium):

            The latest from Lance Roberts (medium):

            The latest from Kyle Bass (medium):

            The Bank of Japan boomerang play (medium):

            Italian bank holdings of Italian sovereign debt rise to all time highs (short):

            Don’t forget France (medium and a must read):




Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 40 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder, Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns. Steve's goal at

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