Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Japan revealed potential projects for its $550 billion US investment fund, including ventures by SoftBank, Toshiba, and Westinghouse in AI, energy and critical minerals. The US will decide which projects will make the cut.

The nation’s largest federal workers’ union called for Congress to end the shutdown, now in its fourth week, putting new pressure on Senate Democrats who have repeatedly blocked a Republican measure that would reopen the government.

The Federal Reserve is expected to end a 3 year phase of quantitative tightening this week, easing pressures on banks amid concerns that funding is getting too tight in money markets:

Monetary Policy

Trampling on dollarization and the Federal Reserve.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2025/10/26/wall-street-and-china-trample-on-dollarization-and-the-federal-reserve/

‘We could have stopped sooner’ isn’t good enough.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/10/27/jerome_powells_we_could_have_stopped_sooner_isnt_good_enough_1143246.html

The case for ending QT.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/27/business/federal-reserve-balance-sheet-tightening.html

Fiscal Policy

Debt cycles.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/27/eastern-style-debt-cycles

Inflation

The K shaped CPI report.

https://www.briefing.com/the-big-picture

Food inflation.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/24/food-inflation-the-price-spikes-of-beef-coffee-eggs-and-dairy/

The range of acceptable collateral is shrinking.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-cio-we-return-law-jungle-range-accepted-collateral-collapsing

The Financial System

Private loan credit ratings may be inflated.

https://www.ft.com/content/9d1f4e49-5edc-4815-9efb-d4ef41756d72

The danger in narrowing credit spreads.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-27/ai-bubble-the-real-danger-to-markets-is-tight-credit-spreads?sref=loFkkPMQ

The coming AI debt deluge.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/coming-ai-debt-deluge

Tariffs

The sleeper issue in Trump’s trade war.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/25/business/trump-tariffs-southeast-asia-transshipment.html

Investing

How to dodge ‘dud’ disruptors (ignore the sales routine).

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/how-to-dodge-dud-disruptors-a-5-point-checklist/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP826&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

The bond market remains on track for higher prices (lower yields).

https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-bond-market-remains-on-track-for-strong-bull-run-in-2025/

When is the Minsky Moment?

https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/weekly-market-pulse-wanna-bet?post=530790

The most dangerous era in history.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/most-dangerous-era-history

The bull case for gold.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-pulls-back-as-us-china-trade-optimism-and-softer-inflation-weigh-on-safe-haven-demand?post=530686

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Sherwin Williams press release (NYSE:SHW): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.59 beats by $0.15.

Revenue of $6.36B (+3.2% Y/Y) beats by $160M.

UPS press release (NYSE:UPS): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.74 beats by $0.44.

Revenue of $21.4B (-3.6% Y/Y) beats by $560M.

What I am reading today

Ten questions to answer before you die.

https://hellomortal.substack.com/p/10-questions-to-answer-before-you?ref=newsletter.weeklyfilet.com

Ten things Warren Buffett does differently.

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/10/27/ten_things_that_warren_buffet_does_differently_1142994.html

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Monday, October 27, 2025

Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

10/27/25

The Market

Technical

The S&P reset that very short term uptrend off of the May low, pushed above its all-time high and with it a return to upside momentum. That doesn’t alter the slowing rate of change since April; but mathematically that had to happen. Overall, the S&P remains above all three DMAs, in uptrends across all timeframes and is moving into the most positive seasonal time of the year.

Nonetheless, I remain of the opinion that this is a market to trade not invest in long term. If you do, be sure to have close in stops.

The latest from Citadel.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/best-seasonal-window-year-starts-next-week-citadel-flows-guru-says-retail-remains-price

The latest from Goldman.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-tech-traders-brace-huge-week

The bond market continued to rally (though it was down for the week) and has now made three higher lows and three higher highs---a decent sign of some sort of change in direction. The good news is that it is above all three DMAs. The bad news is that it is in downtrends across all time frames and is nearing the upper boundary of its short term downtrend. I wouldn’t bet heavily on a change of direction until that threshold is breached.

Gold was flattish on the week. The good news is that it remains above all three DMAs and in uptrends across all timeframes. So, it will take a lot more than a one day air pocket to change GLD’s upside momentum. The bad news is that its recovery has been halting at best. I am still contemplating re-establishing my trading position in GDX, but gold is going to have to show more life before I do.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-24/gold-s-next-move-may-be-determined-by-latecomers-to-rally?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

Retail buying of gold is not yet extreme.

https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/retail-buying-gold-not-yet-extreme

The dollar was up on the week and (1) has managed to remain above its July low and (2) is trading above its 50 and 100 DMAs, but has failed to surmount its 200 DMA---which it must do before I can assume that the worst is over,

Friday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-surge-new-record-high-after-cool-cpi-bullion-battered-black-gold-bid

Friday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

With the government shutdown continuing, there were very few stats released last week. What was produced was positive, including two upbeat primary indicators, one of which was inflation related. Overseas, the indicators were again quite negative with one positive and two negative inflation datapoints.

Despite the US favorable stats, there are too few for me to consider altering my ‘muddle through’ forecast. The inflation number was another factoid that weakens my already weak conviction in my ‘inflation is as good as it is going to get’ call.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/10/september-consumer-inflation-re.html

From sprint to stroll.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/10/24/sprint-to-stroll

Perhaps the most important event of the week was release of the September CPI number, in that it likely (1) ensures an October rate cut and (2) heralds the end of QT.

I would also opine that despite no new negative developments; it is too soon to dismiss the apparent deterioration in the credit markets. As I noted last week: So whether or not we have a crisis, we should certainly be on alert---meaning one more negative event will activate the yellow flashing light on my ‘muddle through’ scenario.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crazy-goldman-stunned-regional-bank-meltdown-its-clients-demand-answers-these-3-questions

It also reinforces my position that this is a Market to trade not invest in.

Consumer sentiment falls.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/24/consumer-sentiment-falls-to-5-month-as-high-prices-as-inflation-worries-persist

International

The October German business climate index came in at 88.4 versus consensus of 87.0; the October current conditions index was 88.3 versus 85.1.

Other

The week ahead.

Economic Week Ahead: October 27-31

AI boom—debt versus equity.

https://www.apolloacademy.com/ai-boom-debt-vs-equity/

The fiscal impact of immigration (this piece is a bit long and in the weeds; at least read the summary and conclusion).

https://manhattan.institute/article/the-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-2025-update?utm_source=virtuous&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=minewsletters-miweekly&vcrmeid=7P3pJRuqBkKY0MZsOJ2IkQ&vcrmiid=moIh8Omcp0KyHMIjT0IlgQ

The rising American living standard.

https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/four-ways-youre-living-better-than-ever/

Fiscal Policy

US state capitalism is destined to failure.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-24/american-state-capitalism-is-destined-for-failure?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

Tariffs

Betting odds of the Supreme Court upholding Trumps tariffs.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/10/imagine-no-ieepa-tariffs

US/China agree on trade ‘framework’.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-signs-peace-deal-secures-flurry-asia-trade-deals-bessent-says-us-china-reach

Investing

The myth of ‘a stock pickers market’.

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/myth-stock-pickers-market

The case against piling into gold.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/money-supply-growth-a-thesis-with-a-fatal-flaw?post=530303

The latest from BofA.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-us-china-trade-deal-may-be-end-rally

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

A new source of rare earth elements.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2025/10/breaking-down-rare-earth-element-magnets-for-recycling/

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Friday, October 24, 2025

The Morning Call--QT is over.

The Morning Call

10/24/25

The Market

Technical

Thursday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/everythings-amid-geopolitical-chaos

The latest from Goldman’s desk.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-choppy-de-grossing-tape-retail-still-rules-roost-goldman

Goldman still bullish gold.

https://www.zerohedge.com/precious-metals/goldman-still-structurally-bullish-gold-maintains-4900-target

The technicals on gold.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-if-bounce-imagine-next-leg-down

Thursday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

September CPI was up 0.3% versus expectations of up 0.4%; core CPI was up 0.2% versus +0.3%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cooler-expected-cpi-data-leaves-fed-track-rate-cuts

September existing home sales rose 1.5% versus consensus of -2.0%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/23/existing-home-sales-rise-1-5-to-7-month-high

The October Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was 15.0 versus projections of 6.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/10/23/kansas-city-fed-manufacturing-highest-level-in-over-3-years

International

The August Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 107.0 versus estimates of 107.4; the September CPI was +0.1% versus 0.0%.

September UK retail sales were up 0.5% versus predictions of -0.1%; ex fuel, they were up 0.6% versus -0.2%.

The October EU flash consumer confidence index came in at -14.2 versus forecasts of -15.4.

The October Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.3 versus expectations of 48.8; the flash services PMI was 52.4 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.9 versus 51.2; the October German flash manufacturing PMI was 49.6 versus 49.0; the flash services PMI was 54.5 versus 51.1; the flash composite PMI was 53.8 versus 50.5; the October EU flash manufacturing PMI was 50.0 versus expectations of 49.1; the flash services PMI was 52.6 versus 50.9; the flash composite PMI was 52.2 versus 50.5; the October UK flash manufacturing PMI was 49.6 versus expectations of 46.7; the flash services PMI was 51.1, in line; the flash composite PMI was 51.1 versus 50.5.

Other

The impact on consumer consumption of a 2001 type Market correction.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/10/what-if-an-equity-market-correction-like-2001

Update on Q3 nowcasts.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-q3-gdp-appears-to-remain-on-growth-track/

The economy is still moving forward.

Economy Still Moving Forward

Monetary Policy

QE revisionism.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-10-23/qe-revisionism-in-a-world-drowning-in-debt?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

QT is over.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/qt-over-goldman-jpmorgan-see-fed-flipping-reserves-tumble-below-3-trillion

Fiscal Policy

The case against Trump’s industrial policies.

https://www.civitasinstitute.org/research/trumps-industrial-policies-will-strangle-growth

US Treasury debt hits $38 trillion.

https://wolfstreet.com/2025/10/22/us-treasury-debt-hits-38-trillion-after-spiking-by-1-trillion-in-2-5-months-and-by-1-8-trillion-since-the-debt-ceiling/

Tariffs

How tariffs are affecting prices. I am incapable of evaluating the logic and veracity of the mathematics of this study; but the outcome doesn’t surprise me. The study was done by the St. Louis Fed, so the FOMC members have undoubtedly read it. One would think that it would weigh on their employment versus inflation policy trade-off.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/oct/how-tariffs-are-affecting-prices-2025

Trump terminates all trade talk with Canada.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-terminates-all-trade-talks-canada-us-equity-futures-dxy-gains-cpi-newsquawk-us

Investing

Gold as an equity hedge.

https://www.ft.com/content/ef885f08-ab95-4190-8d48-23b8068b9da7

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

General Dynamics press release (NYSE:GD): Q3 GAAP EPS of $3.88 beats by $0.17.

Revenue of $12.9B (+10.6% Y/Y) beats by $370M.

What I am reading today

The real story of Sacagawea.

Who was Sacagawea? Here’s the story of her critical role in U.S. exploration | National Geographic

How corruption has amended the constitution.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2025/10/the-american-augean-stables-how-corruption-has-amended-the-constitution.html

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Tuesday, October 28, 2025

The Morning Call--When is the Minsky Moment?

Monday, October 27, 2025

Monday Morning Chartology

The dollar was up on the week and (1) has managed to remain above its July low and (2) is trading above its 50 and 100 DMAs, but has failed to surmount its 200 DMA---which it must do before I can assume that the worst is over,

Friday, October 24, 2025

The Morning Call--QT is over.

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