The Morning Call--Trump's new world order introduces fatter tail risks

 

The Morning Call

 

1/7/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/metals-mania-continues-mag7-lags-2026

 

Note: the S&P managed a close slightly above its all-time high (good news). Under

our time and distance discipline, it needs to remain there through the close on Friday to confirm the breakout. If that is successful, the next visible resistance level is the upper boundary of a very short term uptrend (~7149).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/everything-looks-bullish-right-range-high

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Institutional demand returns to bitcoin.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/bitcoin-etfs-see-biggest-inflow-since-october-as-institutional-demand-returns?post=548605

 

            Trump’s new world order introduces fatter tail risks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trumps-new-world-order-introduces-new-fatter-tail-risks

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications rose 0.3% while purchase applications were down 6.2%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew 7.1% versus +7.6% in the prior week.

 

The December services PMI was 52.5 versus consensus of 52.9; the December composite PMI was 52.7 versus 53.0.

 

The December ADP private payrolls report showed a gain of 41,000 jobs versus projections of 45,000.

 

                        International

 

November German retail sales fell 0.6% versus estimates of +0.4%; the December unemployment rate was 6.3%, in line.

 

The December Japanese services PMI was 51.6 versus expectations of 52.5; the December composite PMI was 51.1 versus 51.5.

 

The December EU construction PMI was 47.4 versus forecasts of 46.9; the December German construction PMI was 50.3 versus 47.0; the December UK construction PMI was 40.1, in line.

 

December EU CPI was up 0.2% versus predictions of +0.3%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Light vehicle sales grew in December.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/light-vehicle-sales-increased-to-160.html

 

                          Heavy truck sales collapsed in Q4.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/heavy-truck-sales-collapsed-in-q4-down.html

 

                          Asking rents declined YoY in December.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/asking-rents-decline-year-over-year.html

 

                          Update on real wages and consumer spending.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/01/test.html

 

                          Update of Q4 nowcast.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-expected-to-cool-in-q4-based-on-latest-nowcasts/

                       

                          Nowcasting 2026 GDP.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/01/nowcasting-core-gdp

 

                          Auto loans deteriorate.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2026/01/auto-loans-further-deteriorate

 

              Overnight News

 

                US attempts to board Russian tanker.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/russia-deploys-submarine-us-chases-dark-fleet-oil-tanker-across-atlantic

 

Marco Rubio has told lawmakers that President Trump plans to buy Greenland    rather than invade it, while Trump has asked aids to give him an updated plan for acquiring the territory.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-discusses-ways-acquire-greenland-military-use-table

 

China's Foreign Ministry said China's legitimate rights and interest in Venezuela must be protected, in regard to US President Trump's statement on Venezuela oil.

 

The US for the first time on Tuesday backed a broad coalition of Ukraine's allies in vowing to provide security guarantees that leaders said would include binding commitments to support the country if Russia attacks again.

 

China launched an anti-dumping probe into Japan’s chipmaking material dichlorosilane, deepening trade tensions after Beijing imposed export curbs — potentially affecting over 40% of its shipments to the country. Tokyo called the measures unacceptable. 

   

            Monetary Policy

 

              The latest FOMC minutes show growing division among members.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/01/06/fomc-minutes-show-divisions

 

            The Dollar

 

              A new hybrid monetary ecosystem.

              https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbestechcouncil/2026/01/02/three-reasons-re-dollarization-is-accelerating-a-new-hybrid-monetary-ecosystem/

 

              The end of dollar rule.

              https://www.financialsense.com/blog/21511/ken-rogoff-end-dollar-rule-debt-geopolitics-and-surveillance

 

            AI

 

              Using the shale boom to judge where we are in the AI bubble.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/using-us-shale-boom-cycle-gauge-where-we-are-ai-bubble

 

            2026

 

              From Stephen McBride.

  https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/heres-what-i-see-coming-in-2026/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP855&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

              From Alhambra Investments.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-it-aint-what-you-dont-know/?src=news

 

              From Goldman’s new chief equity strategist.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-current-combination-extreme-valuation-and-concentration-has-preceded-major-market

 

              From Goldman’s head of hedge fund trading.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/resembles-jan-1999-goldmans-hedge-fund-honcho-lays-out-basic-framework-2026-market

 

            Geopolitics

 

              US exceptionalism versus Chinese uninvestability.

              https://research.gavekal.com/article/us-exceptionalism-versus-chinese-uninvestibility-part-i/

 

     Investing

 

            December dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/01/dividends-by-numbers-in-december-2025.html

 

            The latest from John Hussman.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/01/05/how-bubble-manipulates-time

 

            Stocks and bonds start year in equilibrium.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-and-bonds-start-year-equilibrium

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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The Morning Call---Gold is setting up for another leg higher

 

The Morning Call

 

1/6/26

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-oil-gold-crypto-jump-dollar-dumped-amid-maduro-mayhem

 

Note:  the S&P made a new higher low yesterday (good news) but remains below

its all-time high. I remain cautious until the barrier is breached.

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Gold is setting up for another leg higher.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-setting-another-leg-seasonality-turns-sweet

 

            Bitcoin chart triggering squeeze deja vu.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bitcoin-chart-triggering-squeeze-deja-vu

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The December ISM manufacturing index was reported at 47.9 versus estimates of 48.0.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/01/december-ism-manufacturing-report.html

 

                        International

 

The December Japanese manufacturing PMI came in at 50.0 versus forecasts of 49.7; the December German services PMI was 52.7 versus 52.1; the December composite PMI was 51.3 versus 51.5; the December EU services PMI was 51.5 versus 51.9; the December composite PMI was 51.5 versus 51.9; the December UK services PMI was 51.4 versus 52.1; the December composite PMI was also 51.4 versus 52.1.

 

The December German CPI was 0.0% versus expectations of +0.4%.

 

                        Other

           

                          Update on housing inventory.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/housing-january-5th-weekly-update.html

 

            Overnight News

 

In late night Truth Social post, Trump announced that Danish territory is now an American “protectorate.” Denmark and the broader NATO alliance are extremely concerned the US could imminently seize Greenland and paralyze the NATO alliance. 

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Fed credibility and Powell’s performance (and the survey says……).

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/fed-credibility-and-powells-performance?post=548324

             

 

            The Dollar

 

              Why economic growth slowed after 1971.

                https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2026/01/04/slow-growth-since-1971-the-floating-dollar-just-begs-for-attention/

 

              Calling for a weaker dollar is the stuff of economic ignorance.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/01/05/calls_to_weaken_the_dollar_are_the_stuff_of_economic_ignorance_1156615.html

 

                          Dollar on track for further declines.

              https://www.ft.com/content/1712a946-5861-444e-9740-d488c865c5cf

 

                          The dollar’s role in global reserves the lowest in decades.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollars-role-global-reserves-lowest-decades

 

            Tariffs

 

              The truth about tariffs is emerging.

              https://talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/the-truth-about-us-tariffs-is-finally-emerging?post=548115

 

            2026

 

              The meltup is still on.

              https://www.ft.com/content/cb840ba1-7e4b-4c6c-9e15-e72becfc6d3a

 

              From JP Morgan’s trading desk.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgans-trading-desk-starts-2026-tactically-bullish-heres-why-and-its-4-favorite-trades

 

     Investing

 

            Precious metals are not predicting an economic collapse.

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2026/01/05/metals-arent-predicting-economic-collapse

 

            The AI debt boom does not augur well for investors.

            https://www.ft.com/content/d36f3392-9a73-476a-9357-8ff311bb04da

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

How long will it take to ramp up Venezuelan oil production? (feel free to ignore the political part of this narrative)

https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-long-will-it-take-to-ramp-up-production-of-venezuelan-oil/

 

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

Monday Morning Chartology

 

 

The Morning Call

.

 

1/5/26

 

The Market

 

         Technical

 

The good news is that the S&P has managed to stay above its 50 DMA and remains above all three DMAs and in uptrends across all time frames. The bad news is that it couldn’t make a new high, despite all the giddy talk about old Santa Claus (rally). So, it is being squeezed between its all time high and the 50 as well as the 100 DMAs.

 

I remain of the opinion that this a Market to be traded not invested in---and I am sticking to it until there is some follow through (in either direction.

 

Key indicators to watch.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/new-year-same-risk?post=547999

 

Five bullish signals.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/five-bullish-signals-start-week

 

 

 

 

 

Despite all the happy talk about lower rates/inflation, bond investors don’t seem to be buying it. The long bond is below all three DMAs and in downtrends across all timeframes. I continue to believe that the only circumstance I can see pushing rates meaningfully lower would be a recession.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gold maintained its upward momentum, making a new all-time high last week. It is above all three DMAs and in uptrends across all timeframes. I continue to hold my trading position in GDX.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-setting-another-leg-seasonality-turns-sweet

 

 

 

 

Generally, global investors reflect their confidence a country’s economy via what they are willing to pay for its currency. If that is correct, then what does this chart tell you? Is it a reason for some caution? It certainly gives me pause about buying stocks.

The greenback’s problem.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/greenbacks-problem-what-happens-when-inflows-stop

 

 

 

 

 

            Friday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/scrappy-new-year-bitcoin-bid-big-tech-pumpsndumps-start-2026

           

Friday in the technical stats.

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                Week of 12/22

 

US stats were positive though the primary were less so (one plus, one neutral, two minus, including an inflation indicator). Overseas, the numbers were slightly negative but with one positive price indicator. Nothing here to alter my forecast.

 

                Week of 12/29

 

As you might expect, last week was woefully short economic data. In the US, what there was, was positive with no primary or inflation stats. Overseas, the numbers were mixed, also with no inflation data.

 

Worth mentioning is that the 2026 forecasts I have been reading point to a declining rate of inflation---clearly counter to my forecast. Presently, the only clear sign of such a course is the decline in the Owners’ Equivalent Rent calculation in the CPI. But (1) we have known that was occurring for over a year; so that is not really new news and (2) while it may be part of the official calculation of inflation, it is, in my opinion, largely an economic abstraction that has little to do with rising prices that are a part of the average American’s budget.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-27.html

 

So, while I must be cognizant of this risk to my outlook, I am sticking with it until there is clearer evidence that I am wrong. I keep the yellow light flashing.

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          The end of globalization.

                          https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2026/01/the-end-of-great-globalization.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Increasing the taxes on the rich is not the solution.

              https://reason.com/2026/01/01/why-mitt-romneys-call-to-tax-the-rich-falls-apart/

 

            Inflation

           

              Inflation expectations align, justifying Fed shift.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/inflation-expectations-align-justifying-fed-shift

 

            Affordability

 

              Wages have grown faster than prices.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/wages-have-grown-faster-than-consumer-prices/

 

            2026

 

              Goldman’s top investing themes for 2026.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/these-are-top-themes-goldman-tracking-2026

 

              Goldman’s economic outlook.

              https://www.gspublishing.com/content/research/en/reports/2025/12/18/21ae60e7-6aa4-4e4c-a60a-0fa1a7d36300.pdf

 

              Wall Street sees another banner year.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/02/business/dealbook/wall-street-market-prediction.html

 

              And for those who like to worry.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/10-very-important-trends-watch-we-enter-2026

 

              Question #1 for 2026.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/question-1-for-2026-how-much-will.html

 

              Question #2 for 2026.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2026/01/question-2-for-2026-how-much-will-job.html

           

  What could go wrong?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bearish-counterpoint-what-could-go-wrong-markets-2026

 

     Investing   

           

            The Ponzi scheme in private equity.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ft-exposes-literal-definition-ponzi-scheming-private-equity

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

How the surprise raid on Maduro went down.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-maduro-was-caught-completely-surprise-us-raid-after-cia-team-weeks-monitored-his

 

 

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