The Morning Call
6/18/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-threats-hard-data-dump-sink-stocks-crypto-bonds-dollar-bid
Tuesday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/sectors-heat-map
Everyone is short
the dollar.
Strategic silver.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/strategic-silver-fuelling-missiles-and-gpus
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications fell 2.6% while purchase applications were down 3.0%.
Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 245,000 versus projections of 245,000.
Month to date retail chain store sales grew
faster than in the prior week.
May industrial production declined 0.2%
versus forecasts of +0.1%.
May housing starts
were down 9.8% versus an anticipated decline of 0.8%; May building permits were
off 2.0% versus -1.5%,
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/housing-starts-permits-plunge-weakest-covid-lockdowns
The June housing index came in at 32 versus predictions
of 36.
International
April Japanese
machine orders declined 9.1% versus estimates of -9/7%; the May trade balance was
-Y647.6 billion versus -Y893 billion.
May UK CPI was
+0.2%, in line; core CPI was also +0.2% also in line.
May EU CPI was
0.0%, in line.
Other
Implications of the recent retail sales and
industrial production data.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/06/industrial-and-manufacturing-production.html
Monetary
Policy
Ed Yardini’s thoughts on today’s FOMC meeting.
From ZeroHedge: no change but watch the dot
plot.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-fed-too-uncertain-change-anything-watch-hawkish-dots
Don’t raise the inflation rate target.
https://www.econlib.org/mission-accomplished/
Fiscal
Policy
The absurdity of our ruling class’s approach
to the big, beautiful bill.
https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/fair-weather-hawks
Senate changes to the big beautiful bill.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-senate-makes-big-changes-to-trumps-one-big-beautiful-bill/
The potential good news for our deficit/debt
problem.
Counterpoint.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/open-letter-president-addressing-our-debt
DOGE probably
won’t/wouldn’t have worked because congress/Trump would have just spent the
savings on something else.
Government cannot create prosperity.
Recession
Update on recession odds.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/06/us-recession-odds-holding-mostly-steady.html
Update on big four recession indictors.
Despite all the
doomsday forecasts, the economy is still making progress. I would add: in spite
of the machinations of our ruling class (tariffs, deficit spending). It is a
tribute to American ingenuity and hard work.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/lefts-tariff-doomsday-predictions-fall-flat-trumps-america-thrives
Geopolitics
The redirection trap.
Investing
The uncertainty of uncertainty.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-uncertainty-of-uncertainty/?src=news
Five Star manager on investing in AI.
What if you missed
the Markets best N days?
https://www.aqr.com/Insights/Perspectives/So-What-If-You-Miss-the-Markets-N-Best-Days
Managing the
noise.
https://ritholtz.com/2025/06/manage-the-noise/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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