The Morning Call
7/31/26
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Thursday in the
technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/market-performance
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The Market isn’t
weak.
https://www.allstarcharts.com/2026-07-29/market-isnt-weak-youre-looking-wrong-stocks
Friday morning
setup: A broad rally in US tech stocks is extending for a second day, with
Nasdaq 100 futures rising over 1%. Amazon is the standout in
premarket trading, up by 12% after reporting a fifth quarter of cloud sales
growth, while Apple is sinking 7% after its sales forecast was dented by
industry-wide supply shortages. The gains in big-tech come amid signs that, for
some, AI spending is paying off - underpinned by strong demand. Amazon
shares rallied in late trading after it reported AWS
revenue growth of 37%, above consensus of 31.3% and the fastest clip
since 2021, enabling traders to overlook another increased capex guide and
negative free-cash flow. On the flip side, Apple shares fell after component
shortages weighed on the company’s sales
forecast, echoing caution mentioned by Qualcomm the previous day.
Apple had run into the print as the best performing stock within the
Mag 7 cohort year-to-date.
“The worst
of the positioning washout is probably behind us,” said Florian
Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers. “On valuations, I would say
they are more reasonable than a month ago, not cheap. So this is not the end of
the AI trade, it is probably the end of its easy phase.” Nasdaq 100 futures
climbed 1.2%, while those for the S&P 500 rose 0.5%. Treasuries are
leading the gains in bond markets and mostly at the long end, with 30-year
yields falling by around two basis points. “While the messaging on inflation
has been firm, investors are still trying to assess how that commitment will
translate into policy decisions,” said Francisco Simon at Santander Asset
Management. “The combination of a credible inflation objective, but less
visibility on the path of policy decisions, could translate into higher
volatility in rates markets.” Those gains in bonds, however, paring
after oil prices erased their decline for the day following headlines than Iran
is blocking the passage of six tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent
is on track for a jump of around 20% for July and is currently trading around
$89/barrel.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
International
The June Japanese
unemployment rate was 2.5%, in line; June YoY
housing starts rose 18.6% versus +12.8%; June preliminary industrial production
was up 1.3% versus +0.7%; June retail sales
fell 4.1% versus -0.5%; June YoY construction
orders were up 2.3% versus -7.0%; the July YoY CPI was +2.0%. in line; YoY
core CPI was +1.7%, also in line.
The July Chinese manufacturing
PMI was 49.2 versus estimates of 50.0; the nonmanufacturing PMI was 49.0 versus
50.4; the composite PMI was 49.3 versus 50.0.
The July German
unemployment rate was 6.4% versus predictions of 6.3%.
The July EU flash
CPI was 0.2%, in line.
Other
The market cap of new homes continues to fall.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2026/07/market-cap-of-new-homes-continues.html
The US is undergoing a massive debt for
equity swap.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2026/07/30/america-undergoing-massive-debt-equity-swap
Jobless claims continue to be a positive for
the economy.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2026/07/initial-claims-continue-very-positive.html
Overnight
News
Trump hails historic Gaza agreement….but
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-hails-historic-agreement-disarm-hamas-israel-skeptical
Monetary
Policy
Warsh’s first (self-inflicted) test.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-feds-patience-strategy-faces-its-first-real-test/#more-25792
Real yields surging.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/real-yields-surging-1785430146
Fiscal
Policy
In praise of the Laffer Curve.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2026/07/the-laffer-curve-more-relevant-today-than-ever/
AI
The Market is asking questions.
https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/the-market-is-asking-questions
A
big win for AI.
AI concentration risk is not just in equities.
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/88db8506-bacf-471c-9d09-4216e5e9d55a
OpenAI slashes prices.
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/openai-slashes-gpt-56-luna-price-80-chinas-cheaper-models-close
Data center revolt hits midterms.
Investing
Marking to make
believe.
https://tonyisola.com/2026/07/marked-to-make-believe/
Credit stress is
becoming a stock market problem.
Thought of the day: Things that have never
happened before are bound to occur with some regularity.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Ten
foods that safety experts never eat.
https://time.com/article/2026/07/23/what-food-safety-experts-never-eat/
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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