Monday, September 22, 2025

Monday Morning Chartology

 

 

9/22/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

The S&P re-established its uptrend. Add that to the fact that the S&P is (1) above all three DMAs and (2) in uptrends across all timeframes---and the assumption has to be that momentum remains to the upside albeit with a slowing rate of change.

 

That said, as I repeatedly note, valuations are at historic highs (and getting higher). I remain of the opinion that this is a market to trade not invest in long term. If you do, be sure to have close in stops.

 

 


 

 

After being overjoyed by the bond market’s reversal on the prior Friday’s jobs report, investors were not so receptive to the results of the FOMC meeting. TLT remains above all three DMAs although it is in downtrends across all timeframes. I raised the question last week as to whether we were witnessing a major change in direction. I think that question still stands.

 

 


 

 

Gold continued its rally. It is now above all DMAs and in uptrends across all timeframes. That is likely to continue as long as bad news (recession) is good news and the Fed continues to cut rates. Hold on to your GLD and GDX.

https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-forecast-bullish-trend-intact?post=523672

Another day, another all-time high.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-another-day-another-athspecs-still-dont-get-it

 


 


The dollar’s chart remains the ugliest on the block and will likely continue to be so as long as investors perceive that the economy is weakening and the Fed’s policy is that of cutting rates. The 50 and 100 DMAs appear to have provided some near term support. Let’s see if they can hold. Even if they do, it is still an ugly chart. I remain hard pressed to think that the worst is over.

                       

 

 


 

 

 

            Friday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/premium/latest/4

 

            Friday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Seven charts from Goldman.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/seven-charts-goldmans-macro-trading-team-are-watching

 

            Overbought conditions across multiple markets.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/overbought-conditions-across-multiple-markets

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

 

              The Economy

                       

Last week’s stats were evenly balanced as were the primary indicators (two plus, two minus). No inflation data. Overseas, the data was very upbeat including the price data (three plus, one neutral).

 

Overall, the results continued the weekly data seesawing between positive and negative---this time upbeat. That is the very definition of ‘muddle through.’  So, I remain confident in that part of my forecast.

 

On the other hand, the inflation numbers were again not reflective of a worsening in trend. This is the second week in a row of positive markers. So as I said last week, Clearly, I need to be open to a revision of my ‘inflation is as good as it is going to get’ scenario. For the moment, I am just raising a yellow flag. But additional upbeat inflation reports will persuade me to begin seriously contemplating altering my forecast.

 

Of course, the big event of the week was the FOMC meeting and its results---a 25 bp cut which was expected. However, the narrative from the accompanying statement as well as Powell post meeting presser read a lot more uncertain than I had expected, especially with respect to inflation (they are worried). That is actually a plus because it shows awareness of what I consider to be the primary risk to the economy.

 

That said, save for Volcker, the Fed (in particular the Bernanke, Yellen, Powell regimes) has always erred in favor of monetary ease over fighting inflation. That keeps me concerned about rising prices despite a couple of weeks of upbeat data.

 

So, I remain skeptical of the Fed Funds rate going as low as many believe. But I recognize that the Fed could make the same mistake as before---tagging any negative inflationary data as ‘transitory.’

 

That leaves my forecast of ‘inflation as good as its going to get’ in place and that an aggressive easing of monetary policy will only increase its likelihood. Indeed, with the onset of tariffs and the deficits from the BBB, inflation could become an even larger problem than I previously thought.

 

US

                       

                        International

 

                        Other

                       

                          The week ahead.

                          ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: September 22 - 26             

 

                          Four economists dissect Trump and the economy.

                          https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/opinion/fed-rate-cut-miran-cook-powell.html

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              What country was Powell talking about?

              https://committeetounleashprosperity.com/hotlines/what-country-was-jerome-powell-talking-about-2/

 

                Fiscal Policy

 

              How excessive government debt kills productivity and growth.

              https://klementoninvesting.substack.com/p/how-excessive-government-debt-kills

 

      Investing

 

            All the reasons Trump is wrong about ditching quarterly earnings reports.

                      https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/all-the-reasons-trump-would-be-wrong-to-ditch-quarterly-earnings-6fd3a231?mod=business_lead_pos1

 

           Future rate cuts and the bond market.

           https://www.capitalspectator.com/corporates-are-leading-the-bond-market-this-year/

 

           What happens if we get a stock market reversal?

           https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-ai-stock-price-bubble-and-consumer.html

 

            The latest from BofA.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-fed-cutting-gold-crypto-and-stocks-all-time-highs-so-heres-how-you-trade-bubble

 

            The latest from Goldman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-where-youve-been-paid-be-irresponsibly-bullish-top-goldman-trader-sees-more-gas-tank

 

                   Retail goes parabolic.

           https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/retail-army-goes-parabolic-10-straight-green-days-and-counting

   

 News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

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Friday, September 19, 2025

The Morning Call---The key is the absense of recession

 

The Morning Call

 

9/19/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Friday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/bonds-gold-dumped-crypto-stocks-pumped-hawkish-hangover-hits

 

                Friday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Stocks love falling bond volatility.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/kill-bond-volatility-move-crashes-spx-feeds

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/3-months-left-you-have-buy-junk-top-goldman-trader-sees-fomo-trumping-everything

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The August leading economic indicators were down 0.5% versus consensus of -0.1%.

 

                        International

 

                          August German PPI fell 0.5% versus projections of +0.1%.

 

August UK retail sales were up 0.5%, in line; ex fuel, they were up 0.8% versus +0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Unemployment claims likely to continue higher.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/jobless-claims-continue-higher-yoy-trend.html

 

            Overnight News

House Speaker Johnson said he believes they have the votes to pass the stopgap funding bill, while US Senate Majority Leader Thune said the Senate will also vote on a House stopgap bill on Friday.

 

BOJ kept rates unchanged at 0.50%, as widely expected, with the decision made by a 7-2 vote in which Board members Takata and Tamura proposed a 25bps rate hike. Nonetheless, the central bank surprised markets with the announcement to begin selling its ETF and J-REIT Holdings at a pace of JPY 330bln per year and JPY 5bln per year, respectively, with the decision on ETF and J-REIT sales made by unanimous vote, while it stated the pace of sales may be modified at future MPMs after the start of ETF and J-REIT disposals, based on fundamental principles and experience from sales conducted. BoJ also stated that Japan's economy is recovering moderately, although some weakness has been seen and noted that private consumption has been resilient and inflation expectations have risen moderately, but exports and output remain more or less flat as a trend. Furthermore, it stated that Japan's economic growth is likely to slow due to the impact of trade policies on global growth, but re-accelerate, and Japan's underlying inflation to stagnate due to a slowdown in economic growth, but gradually accelerate thereafter.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              The Fed’s rate cut prompts increase in inflation fears.

              https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-fears-surge-to-highest-since-liberation-day-as-fed-cuts-rates-abe9778f?st=aBerRQ

 

              Parsing the ‘dot plot’.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/17/this-fed-meeting-must-have-been-a-circus/

 

              Time to repeal the Fed’s ‘dual mandate’?

              https://www.ft.com/content/0fdb84da-8cc5-46d7-84be-e9488752edd7

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The moral decay of debt.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/moral-decay-debt

 

            Tariffs

 

              Why trade with China is important.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/09/18/to_keep_us_safe_from_china_trump_must_allow_chinese_goods_in_1134588.html

 

              More on the constitutional issue surrounding the Trump tariffs.

              https://reason.com/2025/09/17/house-republicans-just-voted-to-give-even-more-tariff-power-away-to-trump/

 

              Trump’s aluminum tariffs kill jobs.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/trumps-aluminum-tariffs-kill-jobs-and-put-america-last/

 

     Investing

 

            The AI bazooka.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2025/09/say-hello-to-the-400-billion-ai-bazooka-aimed-at-the-market/

 

There is a lot of interesting data in this article regarding economic/Market performance during rate hiking and rate cutting cycles, though the conclusion is hardly useful.

https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2025/09/17/when-the-fed-cuts-lessons-from-past-cycles-for-investors/

 

            Here is a similar one.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/18/business/stocks-fed-rate-cut.html

 

            The key is the absence of recession.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ruling-out-recession-threat-next-investors

 

            Should you invest in the S&P?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/18/dissecting-s-p-500-should-invest

 

                The Market still expects lower yields, but………...

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-still-expect-lower-yields-after-fed-rate-cut/

 

                The latest from Ed Yardini.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/how-the-roaring-2020s-could-send-the-sp-500-to-10000?post=523489

 

                The great stock repricing.

            (1) The Great Stock Re-pricing - by Arnold Kling - In My Tribe

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM) declares $0.66/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Kroger (NYSE:KR) declares $0.35/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

FedEx press release (NYSE:FDX): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.83 beats by $0.22.

Revenue of $22.2B (+2.8% Y/Y) beats by $550M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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Thursday, September 18, 2025

The Morning Call--The smart money is flashing a warning signal

 

The Morning Call

 

9/18/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/powells-risk-management-cut-wreaks-havoc-across-markets

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The Russell hits resistance.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/roaring-russell-hits-resistance

 

            The number of NASDAQ stocks above their 50 DMA is declining.

            https://x.com/AndrewThrasher/status/1968309940248043881

 

            S&P support strengthens; Gold uptrends holds.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/etfs/spx-support-strengthens-gold-uptrend-holds?post=523229

 

            How the stock market acts during a government shutdown.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/lets-talk-about-a-government-shutdown/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                       

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 231,000 versus forecasts of 240,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-tumble-back-their-four-year-range-texas-anomaly-normalizes

 

The September Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 23.2 versus predictions of 8.0.

 

                        International

 

                          July Japanese machinery orders fell 4.6% versus estimates of -1.3%.

 

                          July EU construction output was up 3.2% versus projections of +2.1%.

 

                        Other

 

                          September business cycle indicators.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/09/business-cycle-indicators-at-mid-september

 

                          The housing bubble in major US cities.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/16/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-aug-2025-price-drops-gains-in-33-large-expensive-metros-us-home-prices-fell-yoy/

 

                          A short history of median household income.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/09/17/u-s-household-incomes-over-50-years-the-great-divide

 

An in depth analysis of housing construction and what it means for the economy.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/09/august-housing-construction-even-more.html

 

            Overnight News

 

US government shutdown risks are rising, with Democrats demanding health care policy changes that House Speaker Mike Johnson has said have “zero” chance of becoming law. The US House cleared the procedural hurdle for a floor vote this week on the stopgap funding measure to avert a government shutdown.

 

The Trump administration is drawing up plans to use tariff revenue to fund a program to support US farmers as they head into harvest facing falling export sales and rising input costs.

 

China is dropping an antitrust probe into Google, as Beijing and Washington step up negotiations over TikTok, Nvidia and trade at a time of heightened tensions between the superpowers.

 

China rare earth exports jumped to a record level in Aug as Beijing permits expanded shipments following an easing of tensions with Washington. BBG

 

            Monetary Policy

 

As everyone knows, the FOMC wrapped up its September meeting yesterday and that was followed by the Powell presser. It cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points, as expected. The tone of the Fed statement and Powell’s comments along with the accompanying dot plot suggested to me an above normal level of uncertainty about the strength of the economy as well as inflation. While I would have voted for no rate cut, I am comforted by the level of concern about inflation.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-29

 

A more negative take.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jerome-powells-fed-enters-nightmare-territory

           

              More Wall Street reactions.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/wall-street-reacts-powells-risk-management-rate-cut

 

              The yield curve doesn’t mean what it used to mean.

              https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-feds-rate-cut-might-not-boost-the-economy-b764c0e6?st=jEXU3Q

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Political cowardice.

              https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/political-cowardice-covid-obamacare-credit-edition/

 

GOP again cedes tariff power to Trump (again, in my opinion, this is a constitutional issue).

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/16/us/politics/republicans-house-tariffs-emergency-trump.html

 

     Investing

 

            The outlook for Q3 dividends.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html

 

            US IPO activity on course for best quarter since 2022.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/09/17/us-ipo-activity-track-best-quarter-since-q1-2022

 

            The ‘smart money’ is flashing a warning signal.

                        https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-17/institutional-investors-are-flashing-a-warning-for-stocks?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            AI trade getting crowded.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ai-momentum-trade-getting-very-crowded-top-goldman-traders-warn

 

            The debt landscape has flipped.

            https://www.ft.com/content/b2d44ad5-62bc-4dc4-9bbc-90633fa596c6

 

            Gold: overbought, overvalued, overcrowded.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-overbought-overvalued-overcrowded

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

FactSet Research Systems press release (NYSE:FDS): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.05 misses by $0.08.

Revenue of $596.9M (+6.2% Y/Y) beats by $3.46M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The tyranny of the playbook.

            https://investmentecosystem.com/2025/09/17/the-tyranny-of-the-playbook/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.