The Morning Call---Stocks all-in for a soft landing

 

The Morning Call

 

8/30/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nvidia-dumps-gold-pumps-dollar-general-craters-most-record

 

            Stocks are all-in for a soft landing.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-are-all-soft-landing-what-if-theyre-wrong

 

            The Market reeks of complacency.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unanimity-bullish-views-market-reeks-complacency

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          July pending home sales fell 5.5% versus forecasts of +0.4%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/08/29/pending-home-sales-unexpectedly-fall-5-5-in-july-to-all-time-low

 

 

July personal income was up 0.3% versus expectations of up 0.2%; July personal sending was up 0.5%, in line.

 

                         July CPI was +0.2%, in line; July core CPI was +0.2%, also in line.

 

                        International

 

The July Japanese unemployment rate was 2.7% versus predictions of 2.5%; July industrial production was up 2.8% versus up 3.3%; July retail sales were up 0.2% versus +0.3%; July YoY housing starts fell 0.2% versus -1.0%; August YoY CPI rose 2.4% versus +2.2%; ex food and energy, it was up 1.6%, in line.

 

The August German unemployment rate was 6.0%, in line.

 

The August EU CPI was up 0.2%, in line: the August unemployment rate was 6.4% versus 6.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          The impact of AI on cap ex spending.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/capex-spending-on-ai-continues-to-be-a-significant-tailwind-to-the-economic-outlook/

 

                          The US mortgage rate whiplash.

                          https://www.ft.com/content/57301a11-063f-42e1-adfb-b7b74ea177d6

 

                          A weaker dollar is good for almost everyone.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-08-29/global-currencies-king-dollar-s-softening-is-good-news-for-nearly-everyone?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Analysis of yesterday’s GDP report.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/q2-gdp-unexpectedly-revised-higher-bizarre-surge-personal-consumption

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The latest Treasury financing strategy.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/28/treasury-department-aggressively-pushes-down-long-term-interest-rates-via-shift-to-t-bill-issuance-and-bond-buybacks/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              The US geopolitical hubris.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-geopolitical-hubris-presents-terrifying-fat-tail-risks

 

     Bottom line

 

            Debt load and corporate profitability.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/08/29/debt-burdens-elevated-rates-test-equity-investors

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/08/quotation-of-the-day-4749.html

 

            Do what brings you joy.

            https://wggtb.substack.com/p/joy

 

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