The Morning Call--Recession risk low based on latest nowcasts

 

The Morning Call

 

8/28/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-hits-new-record-high-bonds-bid-nvda-earnings-loom

 

            Overbought conditions set up short term correction.

            Overbought Conditions Set Up Short-Term Correction - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            Stocks are usually weak heading into a national election.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/ai-makes-us-more-human/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP615&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            But don’t get too bearish.

            https://allstarcharts.com/how-bearish-is-this/

 

            A potential blowup in the TLT trade.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-1-trillion-treasury-carry-trades-blow-clearinshouses

 

            Is gold losing its shine?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-bull-run-losing-its-shine

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.5% while purchase allocations were up 1.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.

 

The June Case Shiller home price index was up 0.6% versus forecasts of +1.0%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/08/27/sp-case-shiller-home-price-index-june-2024

 

The August consumer confidence index came in at 103.3 versus projections of 100.7.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/08/27/consumer-confidence-hits-6-month-high-in-august

 

The August Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -19 versus consensus of -14.

 

                        International

 

The June Japanese final leading economic indicator index reading was 109.0 versus predictions of 108.6.

 

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              When Keynes killed laissez faire.

              https://lawliberty.org/when-keynes-killed-laissez-faire/?mc_cid=701e504967&mc_eid=345c45bfca

             

  Why massive deregulation is difficult.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/08/why-massive-deregulation-is-very-difficult.html

 

                Inflation

 

              EU inflation expectations fall.

              https://www.ft.com/content/284d893b-d4fb-4628-a526-5feb2768c14e

 

                Recession

 

              Recession risk low based on latest nowcasts.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-recession-risk-is-still-low-via-q3-gdp-nowcasts/

 

              Hints of a recession.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/i-feel-recession-going-hit-us-dallas-richmond-philly-fed-surveys-slump

 

              Highflyer’s stock price crash sends warning on Chinese economy.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-27/china-s-crashing-consumer-star-sounds-alarm-on-economic-growth?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

                Geopolitics

 

As you know, one of my pet peeves is the neocons love of spending our money and killing our kids to no avail (e.g., Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam). Historically, neocons have been associated with republicans---and I hold them at fault for the aforementioned missteps (at least the first two). Now it appears that the democrats are embracing a new and improved thesis for wasting money and killing our youth.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/08/the-rising-democratic-threat-of-hopeful-militarism.html

 

    Bottom line

 

            IPO market gets cold feet.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-ipo-market-gets-cold-feet-80222c4c?mod=finance_lead_pos1

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            Wednesday morning humor.

            https://youtu.be/Nyvxt1svxso

 

 

 

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