The Morning Call
8/6/24
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Note: quite a day.
The S&P (1) reset its 50 DMA to resistance and (2) closed below its 100 DMA
[if it remains through the close on Wednesday, it will reset to resistance]. Visible
downside support levels include (1) the S&P’s 23.6% Fibonacci retracement
level [5157], (2) the 200 DMA [~5011], (3) the 38.25% Fibonacci retracement level
[4838] and (4) the lower boundary of its short term uptrend [~4643]. The only
possible good news is two huge gap down opens which should act with some
magnetic pull. I am starting to work on a Buy List; but I think it too soon to
act.
Margin call
Monday.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/margin-call-monday
Manic Monday.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/manic-monday
Where is the support?
https://allstarcharts.com/vix-hits-50-wheres-the-support/
Pay attention to
the sentiment indicators.
https://allstarcharts.com/its-that-sentiment-thing-again/
Market positioning
as of Tuesday morning.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/markets-after-bloodbath
Bonds are back.
https://allstarcharts.com/us-t-bonds-put-it-in-reverse/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The June trade
balance was -$73.1 billion versus projections of -$72.5 billion.
The July services
PMI was 55.0 versus estimates of 56.0; the July composite PMI was 54.3 versus
55.0.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/08/05/sp-global-services-pmi-july-2024
The July ISM nonmanufacturing
index was 51.4 versus expectations of 51.0.
International
June Japanese YoY average
earnings were up 4.5% versus consensus of +2.3%; June YoY household spending
fell 1.4% versus -0.9%.
June German
factory orders rose 3.9% versus predictions of +0.8%.
The July EU
construction PMI came in at 41.4 versus forecasts of 41.2; the July German
construction PMI was 40.0 versus 38.6; the July UK construction PMI was 55.3
versus 52.7.
July EU retail
sales were down 0.3% versus projections of -0.1%.
Other
Monetary
Policy
Our tortoise like Fed.
https://www.econlib.org/our-tortoise-like-fed/
Recession
Slowing but still
a soft landing (click on the link at the bottom of the page to get the charts).
https://www.apolloacademy.com/slowing-but-still-a-soft-landing/
Tariffs
GOP senators break with Trump on tariffs.
https://www.axios.com/2024/08/04/gop-senators-donald-trump-tariff-trade-inflation
Bottom line
What is driving
the sell off?
https://www.ft.com/content/91050c8c-e2b3-4753-9484-c010037dae9b
Sell
off check list.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/just-another-manic-monday-goldman-trader-issues-selloff-checklist
Berkshire sold more
than its Apple shares.
Bullish years often
have corrections.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/08/05/bullish-years-have-corrections
The equity risk
premium is still high.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-global-market-sell-off-dethrone-us-stocks-2024-leadership/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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