The Morning Call
8/29/24
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bullion-bitcoin-battered-nvdas-big-night
Stubbornly
stressed stocks.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/stubbornly-stressed-stocks
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 231,000 versus consensus of 232,000.
Q2 (2nd
est.) GDP growth was 3.0% versus projections of 2.8%; Q2 (2nd est.)
real consumer spending was +2.9% versus +2.3%; Q2 (2nd est.) core
PCE was +2.8% versus +2.9%; Q2 (preliminary) corporate profits were up 1.7%
versus -1.5%.
International
August German CPI was -0.1% versus estimates
of +0.1%.
The August EU
economic sentiment index was 96.6 versus expectations of 95.8.; the August
consumer confidence index was -13.5 versus -13.4; the August industrial
sentiment index was +9.7 versus -10.6; the August services sentiment index was
6.3 versus 5.2.
Other
August economic sentiment and confidence.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/08/sentiment-and-confidence
Protests in China on the rise.
African debt crisis has catastrophic
implications.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/28/business/african-debt-crisis.html
Germany
falling into crisis.
Monetary
Policy
The irrelevancy of the Fed.
https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-fed-declares-victory/
M2 (and risk of
inflation) continues to decline. That means that I am going to have to revise
my inflation forecast, at least for the near term. But the bigger problem
remains, i.e., if our political class continues its profligate ways (more spending
without a commensurate increase in taxes), the Fed will almost surely be forced
to monetize that spending and that means inflation.
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2024/08/excess-m2-continues-to-fade-away.html
The alternative is recession.
https://www.bostonherald.com/2024/08/21/antoni-coming-recession-may-already-have-arrived/
Fiscal
Policy
God forbid either candidate has their way.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/27/opinion/harris-trump-economic-populism.html
The foolishness (and unworkability) of taxing
unrealized gains.
https://www.cato.org/blog/harriss-taxes-unrealized-gains-only-tip-5-trillion-tax-iceberg
Bottom line
Past performance
is a public enemy (must read).
https://www.ft.com/content/a9b53d71-3bd5-43dd-80ac-399957614374
How dividends
impact stock performance (must read).
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/08/dividends-and-market-performance-of.html
Ten facts about
the Treasury market.
https://www.apolloacademy.com/10-facts-about-the-us-treasury-market/
When will Nivida’s
run end?
https://sherwood.news/markets/nvidia-craziest-charts-in-market-history/
Investor Alert
While GLD has
remains above its all-time high, it is struggling to do so. In addition, the
latest M2 and inflation numbers (see above) are not fitting my higher inflation
scenario. Finally, this was a trade not
an investment. I am selling my GDX position.
In
my quarterly review of Starbucks, it failed to meet the minimum financial criteria
for inclusion in our Universe. Accordingly, I am selling the Aggressive Growth Portfolio’s
position in SBUX and removing it from the Aggressive Growth Universe.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
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