The Morning Call---Nice rebound; but is this decline over?

 

The Morning Call

 

8/9/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bond-yields-bitcoin-bullion-bounce-rate-cut-hopes-fade

 

Note: nice rebound. The S&P finished above its 100 DMA; if it remains there through the close on Monday, it will reset to support. Follow through as always.

 

            Market took a hit, but a clear risk-off move is still in dispute.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/markets-take-a-hit-but-a-clear-risk-off-signal-is-still-in-dispute/

           

            From Goldman and JP Morgan trading desks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/was-bottom-goldman-and-jpmorgan-answer

 

Hedge funds flooding back into tech stocks. (I am looking at the QQQ and SPRX ETF’s).

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-funds-are-quietly-flooding-back-tech-stocks-goldman-prime

 

            The anomaly in the pricing of the odds of recession.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/spot-odd-one-out-recession-odds-edition

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

The July Chinese CPI was +0.5% versus predictions of +0.3%; July YoY PPI was -0.8% versus -0.9%.

 

The July German CPI was +0.3%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Monetary policy without the political/Market chaos.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/4813558-federal-reserve-inflation-politics/

 

              The bond market is trying to bully the central banks…. again.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-08-07/consider-yourself-warned-on-market-risks?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Recession

 

              More on the state of the consumer balance sheet.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/07/here-come-the-helocs-mortgages-the-burden-of-mortgage-debt-delinquencies-and-foreclosures-in-q2/

 

              Still more.

              https://www.investopedia.com/slower-consumer-credit-growth-points-to-spending-slowdown-8692196

 

              Atlanta Fed home affordability monitor.

              https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/atlanta-fed-home-ownership-affordability-389

 

            Tariffs

 

              Tariffs betray promises.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2024/08/08/trump_tariffs_betray_gop_promises_to_voters_1050135.html

 

              Cato Institute poll on tariffs.

              https://www.cato.org/blog/poll-63-americans-want-increase-trade-other-nations-75-worry-tariffs-are-raising-consumer

 

    Bottom line

 

Goldman research turns more bearish on economy and the tech sector (versus its trading desk---see above).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/if-start-crash-how-goldman-trading-it

 

            Consider yourself warned.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-08-07/consider-yourself-warned-on-market-risks?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

Big tech earnings.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/the-1-takeaway-from-big-tech-earnings?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP562&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

                        Counterpoint.

            https://www.vox.com/today-explained-newsletter/365292/ai-bubble-nvidia-chatgpt-stock-market-crash

 

Here is another article directed at traders but applies equally to long term investors during periods of high Market stress.

https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/08/overcoming-emotional-trading-part-two.html

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

C.H. Robinson Worldwide (NASDAQ:CHRW) declares $0.62/share quarterly dividend, 1.6% increase from prior dividend of $0.61.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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