The Morning Call
7/19/22
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/brent-bitcoin-and-bonds-bounce-rotten-apple-wrecks-tech
Note: yesterday,
the S&P tried to push through the upper boundary of its very short term
downtrend and failed. This keeps intact the pennant formation I have been
referring to in our Monday Morning Chartology; it also means that the index has
made yet another lower high.
Watch for another
volume thrust.
https://allstarcharts.com/chart-of-the-day-thrust-hunting-season/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Month to date retail
chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.
June housing starts
fell 2.0% versus expectations of +0.8%; June building permits declined 0.6%
versus -1.0%.
The July housing index came in at 55 versus
estimates of 65.
International
The May UK
unemployment rate was 3.8% versus predictions of 3.9%; May YoY average earnings
were up 6.2% versus +6.7%.
May EU YoY
construction output was up 2.9% versus consensus of +3.2%; June CPI was +0.8%,
in line.
Other
Housing inventory up 30% YoY.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/07/housing-inventory-july-18th-update-up.html
Update on five high frequency economic
indicators.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/07/five-high-frequency-indicators-for_18.html
The
Fed
A history of the Fed’s policy errors (must
read).
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/07/15/forgotten-lessons
Inflation
Inside the June inflation numbers.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/07/inflation-in-june
The US is exporting inflation and Fed rate
hikes will make it worse.
Recession
Europe fears widespread economic fallout if Russian
gas outage continues.
Geopolitics
The Ukraine war is not going well for the
West.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/07/russias-campaign-in-ukraine-nearing-an-inflection-point.html
So, the US ups the ante.
Bottom line
Are we headed for
an earnings recession?
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1102461/markets-brief-are-we-headed-for-an-earnings-recession
Goldman and Morgan
Stanley believe that there is more downside in stocks.
Earnings season
off to a slow start.
When to buy?
https://ritholtz.com/2022/07/rally-multiple-compression-earnings-recession-double-bottom/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Johnson
& Johnson press release (NYSE:JNJ): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.59 beats by $0.04.
Revenue
of $24B (+3.0% Y/Y) beats by $180M.
What
I am reading today
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