Thursday, July 7, 2022

The Morning Call--Recession watch

 

The Morning Call

 

7/7/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-black-gold-drop-dollar-pops-fed-confirms-hawkish-stance

 

            Regression to trend.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/07/05/regression-to-trend-118-above-trend-in-june

 

            The most important piece of information for traders.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2022/07/the-most-important-piece-of-information.html

 

            The latest reading of the Smart Money Index.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/07/06/smart-money-investing-signals

 

            Visualizing short term stock performance.

            https://www.tker.co/p/sp-500-intra-year-max-drawdowns

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                        

Weekly mortgage applications fell 5.4% while purchase applications were down 4.3%.

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 235,000 versus estimates of 230,000.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

May factory orders were up 1.6% versus consensus of +0.5%; ex transportation, they were up 1.7% versus +0.5%.

 

The May job openings report (JOLTS) showed a total of 11.3 million available jobs versus projections of 11.0 million.

 

The May balance of trade was -$85.5 billion versus forecasts of -$84.9 billion.

 

The June final services PMI was 52.7 versus expectations of 51.6; the final composite PMI was 52.3 versus 51.2.

 

The June ISM nonmanufacturing index was reported at 55.3 versus predictions of 54.3.

 

                        International

 

May German factory orders were up 0.1% versus consensus of -0.6%; May German industrial production was up 0.2% versus +0.4%; the May balance of payments was E+0.5 billion versus E+1.2 billion.

 

May EU PPI came in at +0.7% versus estimates of +1.1%; May retail sales increased 0.2% versus +0.4%.

 

The May Japanese preliminary leading economic indicators reading was 101.4 versus forecasts of 101.0.

 

The June Japanese final services PMI was 54.0 versus expectations of 54.2; the June final composite PMI was 53.0 versus 53.2; the June final Chinese Caixin services PMI was 54.5 versus 49.1; the June final composite was 55.3 versus 50.0; the June EU final services PMI was 53.0 versus 52.8; the June final composite PMI was 52.0 versus 51.9; the June final UK services PMI was 54.3 versus 53.4; the June final composite PMI was 53.7 versus 53.1.

 

The June EU construction PMI was 47.0 versus forecasts of 49.7; the June German construction PMI was 45.9 versus 46.2; the June UK construction PMI was 52.6 versus 55.0.

 

                        Other

 

                          Vehicle sales per capita.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/07/05/vehicle-sales-per-capita-as-of-june-2022

               

            The Fed

 

Yesterday, the FOMC released the minutes of its latest meeting---which showed it more concerned about inflation than recession.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-0

 

            Recession

 

              Recession watch.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/recession-watch-it-time-buy-10-year-treasuries

 

              Wall Street says a recession is coming, consumers say that it is already here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-06/are-we-already-in-a-recession-2022-businesses-and-workers-say-yes?srnd=premium#xj4y7vzkg&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          The bond market thinks it is coming.

              https://www.ft.com/content/5795f52f-36e0-45a5-bed6-f939e5535814

 

 

              Goldman believes that the odds of it coming are rising.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-world-brink-rather-severe-recession

 

              A little perspective, please.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/07/04/weekly-market-pulse-things-that-need-to-happen/

 

            Inflation

 

              Accelerating inflation in Asia putting pressure on central banks to raise rates.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/accelerating-inflation-in-asia-puts-pressure-on-central-banks-to-raise-rates-11657018992

 

            China

 

                China prepares $220 billion stimulus package.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-considers-220-billion-special-bond-sale-offset-economic-slump

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) declared $0.55/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        The capitalist kibbutz.

            https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/07/the-mixed-economy-is-politically-stable.html

 

            The broker who saved America.

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/07/04/the-broker-who-saved-america-10/

 

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