The Morning Call
7/13/22
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Note: the S&P closed
right on it 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If that doesn’t hold, the next support
level is the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend ~3741.
How bonds are
pricing inflation.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/hashtag/?keywords=inflation
Dollar damnation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/crpstf4t1j
Who is trouble because
of the strong dollar?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cg7bx-j6h
Commodity prices continue
to plunge.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/c2b9kw6nqr
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications declined 1.7% while purchase applications were down 3.6%.
Month to date retail
chain store sales grew at the same pace as the prior week.
June CPI came in
at +1.3% versus forecasts of +1.1%; core CPI was +0.7% versus +0.6%.
International
May EU industrial production was up 0.8%
versus predictions of +0.3%.
May UK GDP grew
0.5% versus estimates of 0.0%; May industrial production was up 0.9% versus
0.0%; the May trade balance was L-9.7 billion versus L-9.3 billion.
Final June German CPI
was +0.1%, in line.
The June Chinese
trade balance was $97.9 billion versus consensus of $75.5 billion.
Other
The worst of the global energy crisis may
still lie ahead.
Q2 office vacancy rate increased; mall
vacancy unchanged.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/07/reis-office-vacancy-rate-increased-in.html
The
leading index for commercial real estate was up slightly in June.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/07/leading-index-for-commercial-real.html
Recession
and the euro.
https://www.ft.com/content/776c2d21-4711-42b4-90a2-b913332ad555
The
euro is a central bank problem.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/euro-energy-problem-or-central-bank-problem
Shipping
containers are backlogged at a California port.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/long-beach-container-backlog-crosses-red-line-delays-mount
The
Fed
Bill Gross on Fed policy.
This is an
interesting thesis regarding Fed policy and the Phillips Curve. I am not sure I
buy, but it bears consideration.
https://www.aier.org/article/inflation-unemployment-and-fed-credibility/
Recession
More evidence that we are not yet in a
recession.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/07/10/weekly-market-pulse-a-most-unusual-economy/
On the other hand:
Loan Depot firing 2,000 employees as mortgage
market implodes.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/loandepot-fire-another-2000-workers-mortgage-market-implodes
Auto repos skyrocketing.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/car-repos-loans-originated-2020-and-2021-are-skyrocketing
I include this not
because it is good analysis but because it is bad analysis. The author totally
misses an age old proven element of the economic cycle---employment is a
lagging indicator.
https://www.tker.co/p/june-jobs-payrolls-not-recession
China
China’s credit growth explodes.
US/China trade rebounds.
Bottom line.
Prepare for the
dollar hit on S&P earnings.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/11/prepare-for-the-us-dollar-hit-on-sp-500-big-tech-earnings.html
Dividend payouts
hit record.
Bulls**t in
investing.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/on-bullshit-in-investing
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Cummins (NYSE:CMI) declares $1.57/share quarterly dividend, 8.3% increase from prior
dividend of $1.45.
Fastenal press release (NASDAQ:FAST): Q2 GAAP EPS of $0.50 in-line.
Revenue
of $1.78B (+17.9% Y/Y) beats by $10M.
Fastenal
(NASDAQ:FAST) declares $0.31/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
The
wages of bureaucracy, FDA edition.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/07/a-pox-on-the-fda.html
Why Wimbledon uses 55,000 balls a
year.
https://www.latimes.com/sports/story/2022-07-07/wimbledon-tennis-balls
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