The Morning Call
7/22/22
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-big-tech-surge-ugly-data-hammers-rate-hike-hopes
Still a lot of fear
in the volatility markets.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/openinterest
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The June leading economic
indicators fell 0.4% versus estimates of -0.3%.
International
The June Japanese
CPI was 0.0% versus forecasts of +0.2%; the July flash manufacturing PMI was
52.2 versus 52.0; the July flash services PMI was 52.1 versus 52.7; the July
flash composite PMI was 50.6 versus 51.8.
July UK consumer confidence
came in at -41 versus predictions of -42; July retail sales fell 0.1% versus
-0.3%; the July flash manufacturing PMI was 52.2 versus 52.0; the July flash services
PMI was 53.3 versus 53.0; the July flash composite PMI was 52.8 versus 52.5.
The July German
flash manufacturing PMI was 49.2 versus forecasts of 50.6; the July flash services
PMI was 52.1 versus 52.7; the July flash composite PMI was 48.0 versus 50.1.
The July EU flash manufacturing
PMI was 49.6 versus expectations of 51.0; the July flash services PMI was 50.6
versus 52.0; the July flash composite PMI was 49.4 versus 51.0.
Other
A new data series on employment.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/07/the-teen-canaries-in-coal-mine.html#.YtmRnHbMKUk
The
Fed
The argument for the Fed staying tighter,
longer (must read).
https://blogs.tslombard.com/the-nightmare-scenario-for-central-banks
Recession
We are not there quite yet.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/07/so-you-think-were-in-a-recession-right-now-part-vi
More support for
that notion.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/using-multiple-yield-curves-to-predict-recessions/
Recession reflections.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/everyoneknows
Inflation
What if the Market is wrong about inflation?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/interest-rate-pain-from-higher-inflation-has-barely-begun-11658327626
Geopolitics
Ukraine grain export deal appears likely.
China
China’s Lehman Bros. moment?
https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/recent-activity/
The
coronavirus
More evidence that mask mandates are
ineffective.
Bottom line
Thoughts on investing.
https://humbledollar.com/2022/07/neglected-ideas/
Time to buy high yield
bonds?
The uncertainty monster.
https://ritholtz.com/2022/07/the-uncertainty-monster/
So far, lower earnings are not bothering the
Market.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sinking-estimates-are-music-ears-sp-bulls
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