Friday, July 22, 2022

The Morning Call--The argument for the Fed staying tighter, longer

 

The Morning Call

 

7/22/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-big-tech-surge-ugly-data-hammers-rate-hike-hopes

 

            Still a lot of fear in the volatility markets.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/openinterest

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The June leading economic indicators fell 0.4% versus estimates of -0.3%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/07/21/cb-lei-fourth-consecutive-decline-in-june

 

                        International

 

The June Japanese CPI was 0.0% versus forecasts of +0.2%; the July flash manufacturing PMI was 52.2 versus 52.0; the July flash services PMI was 52.1 versus 52.7; the July flash composite PMI was 50.6 versus 51.8.

 

July UK consumer confidence came in at -41 versus predictions of -42; July retail sales fell 0.1% versus -0.3%; the July flash manufacturing PMI was 52.2 versus 52.0; the July flash services PMI was 53.3 versus 53.0; the July flash composite PMI was 52.8 versus 52.5.

 

The July German flash manufacturing PMI was 49.2 versus forecasts of 50.6; the July flash services PMI was 52.1 versus 52.7; the July flash composite PMI was 48.0 versus 50.1.

 

The July EU flash manufacturing PMI was 49.6 versus expectations of 51.0; the July flash services PMI was 50.6 versus 52.0; the July flash composite PMI was 49.4 versus 51.0.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/pmis-signal-eurozone-recession-day-after-first-ecb-rate-hike-11-years

 

                        Other

 

                          A new data series on employment.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/07/the-teen-canaries-in-coal-mine.html#.YtmRnHbMKUk

 

            The Fed

 

              The argument for the Fed staying tighter, longer (must read).

              https://blogs.tslombard.com/the-nightmare-scenario-for-central-banks

 

            Recession

 

              We are not there quite yet.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/07/so-you-think-were-in-a-recession-right-now-part-vi

 

                  More support for that notion.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/using-multiple-yield-curves-to-predict-recessions/

 

                  Recession reflections.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/everyoneknows

 

                Inflation

 

              What if the Market is wrong about inflation?

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/interest-rate-pain-from-higher-inflation-has-barely-begun-11658327626

 

                Geopolitics

 

              Ukraine grain export deal appears likely.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/turkey-says-breakthrough-ukraine-grain-export-deal-being-finalized-signed

 

                China

 

              China’s Lehman Bros. moment?

              https://www.linkedin.com/in/edward-yardeni/recent-activity/

 

            The coronavirus

 

              More evidence that mask mandates are ineffective.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/new-study-adds-growing-body-evidence-suggesting-mask-mandates-are-ineffective

 

     Bottom line

 

            Thoughts on investing.

            https://humbledollar.com/2022/07/neglected-ideas/

 

            Time to buy high yield bonds?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/07/19/three-reasons-its-time-to-add-high-yield-bonds

 

                The uncertainty monster.

            https://ritholtz.com/2022/07/the-uncertainty-monster/

 

                So far, lower earnings are not bothering the Market.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sinking-estimates-are-music-ears-sp-bulls

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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