The Morning Call--100 basis points in July?

 

The Morning Call

 

7/14/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-policy-error-imminent-soaring-cpi-sparks-drastic-yield-curve-inversion

 

            The ‘Tesla’ indicator.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/07/12/tesla-is-the-bubble

 

            Gold is not an inflation hedge.

            https://allstarcharts.com/not-inflation-hedge-22/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 244,000 versus estimates of 235,000.

 

June PPI came in at +1.1% versus expectations of +0.8%, core PPI was +0.4% versus +0.5%.

 

                        International

 

May Japanese industrial production fell 7.5% versus consensus of -7,2%; capacity utilization  down 9.2% versus -0.5%.

 

June German PPI was up 0.1% versus projections of +0.7%.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              100 basis points in July?

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-now-sees-100bps-rate-hike-two-weeks-bostic-says-everything-play

 

The latest Beige Book reports modest economic growth but mounting fears of recession.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/07/feds-beige-book-housing-demand-weakened.html

 

              A different approach to QE/QT (must read).

              https://www.ft.com/content/d86f459d-8516-43df-a251-39427c0ad29b

 

              Bank of Korea joins Bank of Canada in rate hike.

              https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/skoreas-cbank-joins-peers-historic-half-point-rate-hike-2022-07-13/

 

            Recession

 

              The new narrative.

              https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/07/13/a-mild-recession/

 

              Case in point.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/flood-begins-bank-america-now-forecasts-mild-recession-starting-second-half-2022

 

              The IMF says no recession.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/07/imf-forecast-for-us-gdp-no-recession

 

            Inflation

 

              Update on the price of a can of Campbell’s tomato soup.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/07/campbells-soup-to-see-third-wave-of.html#.Ys79UHbMKUk

 

              The era of expensive oil is here to stay.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-13/oil-price-drop-likely-offers-drivers-temporary-gas-relief?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Geopolitics

 

              UN sees hope in Ukraine/Russia deal to allow shipment of Ukrainian grains.

              https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/russian-ukrainian-militaries-set-discuss-grain-exports-86726804

 

     Bottom line

 

            From fear of missing out to fear of being in.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/07/12/fear-of-missing-out-wall-street-retail-hang-on

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $4.88/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            More ‘big brother’ control measures from the political class (must read).

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/07/21-african-countries-just-quietly-embraced-vaccine-passports.html

 

            Why optimists live longer.

            https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/07/03/optimistists-live-longer-why/

 

            Images from NASA’s new telescope.

            https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/2022/07/12/1111002820/webb-telescope-images-nasa

 

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